Fri Oct 10, 2008 3:35 pm EDT
BDL's 2008-09 NBA Season Preview: Atlanta Hawks
By J.E. Skeets
As the NBA preseason marches on, Ball Don't Lie looks at all 30 teams, outlining off-season transactions, projecting win totals, spinning tracks, and much, much more. It's a fun, hot mess. Today, the Atlanta Hawks.
Last Season: 37-45; lost in first round of the playoffs to the TD Banknorth Garden
Key Players Added: Maurice Evans (free agent via Orlando), Flip Murray (free agent via Indy/Detroit), Randolph Morris (free agent via NY), Othello Hunter (free agent via ... um ... yeah ...), Thomas Gardner (Scotts Miracle-Gro)
Key Players Lost: Josh Childress (Greece discotheque), Salim Stoudamire (bolted to San Antonio, stole eight Hawks' basketballs)
Kelly Dwyer's Endless Grey Ribbon: The Hawks were so all over the place in 2007-08, both on the court and off, that the 36 wins I have them penciled in for even seems like a stretch.
It might not make any sense to those who weren't watching, what with the team's young core and with the late-season exposure the Hawks received, but Atlanta actually started 2006-07 as a top-notch defensive team. In fact, for most of the season — while most scribes and TV pundits talked about the team's offensive firepower and Joe Johnson's scoring touch — it was defense that was winning games for these Hawks.
That slowed as winter thawed, however, and especially after the team traded for Mike Bibby. What followed were some offensive gains that, frankly, I don't think the team can keep up. Entering this season, are these Hawks going to have it in them to get back to that defensive mindset? Are they going to play the same hungry D that won them contract extensions (for coaches and players), or are they going to point fingers and look for shots?
And I don't want to hear how the Hawks "took Boston to the brink," either. They were blown out badly on the road, and won three close ones at home. Bravo to the latter, but the team still lost by an average of 12 points per game. That's not "to the brink." That's "flipping a coin and having it land on heads, three times in a row."
Worse, this is a thin team. The draft work of former GM Billy Knight and the summertime work of an ownership group that really doesn't like to spend money made sure of this. Sure, the owners and Knight did well to bring in Mike Bibby last February and sign Maurice Evans over the summer, but these are two players who will be in their 30s this year and are on the downside of their career.
And people are going to have to come to turns with where Bibby is at. His 38 three-point mark was very much appreciated last year, but the reason the Hawks turned it around with Mike at the helm last season is because average is better than far-below average. And going from Anthony Johnson to Mike Bibby means an improvement. But it doesn't mean that Bibby, who turned 30 last May, isn't anything more than an average point guard. Possibly a bit below average, once you factor in that defense. The game doesn't hold a candle to his name, at this point.
Reasons for hope? Players improve, year to year, until they're in their late 20s when they plateau. And Al Horford, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams will improve. This will help overcome the depth issues, partially. Joe Johnson will stay the same, and Bibby will drop off slightly or (more likely) stay the same. Replacing (and I know I'm oversimplifying, because they did share court time quite a bit, but you get the point) 30 minutes of Marvin Williams and 20 minutes of Josh Childress with 35 minutes of an improved Williams and 15 minutes of Maurice Evans will be a drop-off, though.
Acie Law, however, was shockingly bad, and I wouldn't expect much. For a 23-year old rookie to play that poorly last year (check out the stats), yeah, this isn't a guy you should be waiting for.
On top of all that mess, you know this Mike Woodson thing just isn't going away. He's had issues with Smith and a few others on this team, and both parties are probably pretty shocked that the other side of the conflict is still around as 2008-09 starts. Throw in what could be some lingering resentment over the Josh Smith contract negotiations, a new GM who might want his own coach, and the usual ownership mess … 36 wins? That's one less than last year, and that still feels like a lot.
One year in the playoffs wasn't horrible, it was worth it, and it was fun to watch. But that might be it for a while.
Expected record: 36-46
BDL's 2008-09 NBA Season Preview: Atlanta Hawks - Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sports 
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