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  #1  
Old 06-13-04, 09:01 AM
chaboard's Avatar
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Definitive Rundown Of Spurs Cap Situation

from Larry Coon, whose cap expertise is second to none:


Signed players:
Duncan $14,260,641
Rasho $6,160,000
Rose $5,462,500
Parker $1,545,441
total: $27,428,582

Team options:
Horry $0 (already declined)
Brown $695,046 (a lock to be picked up)

Player options:
Bowen $0 (already opted out)

Draft picks:
Pick #28 $701,400

Free agent amounts:
Manu $1,894,750 (two-year vet)
Hedo $5,986,833 (Bird off rookie scale contract)
Bowen $7,300,000 (Bird, not RSC)
Others $0 (SA will dump, so I didn't bother)

This all adds up to $44,006,611. I'll round to $44.0
million for the rest of this analysis.

Now let's consider the cap. Dan Rosenbaum expects it to
fall between $41.3 million and $44.4 million
(http://www.uncg.edu/bae/people/rosenbaum/luxtax.html),
and the MLE to be around $4.9 million again.

Even in the best-case scenario, the Spurs will be only
a few hundred thousand under the cap, and their exceptions
would eat up all their cap room. In order to gain any
room to sign players, they would have to renounce Bowen,
and possibly Hedo as well. Here is their team salary at
the high and low ends without one or both:

w/o Bowen: $36,706,611
w/o Bowen or Hedo: $30,719,778

So here is the cap room for each team salary level (rounded
to nearest $100K), at the low and high ends, assuming the
Spurs will carry $6.5 million in exceptions:

Team $41.3M $44.1M
Salary Cap Cap
------ ------ ------
$36.7M $0* $7.4M
$30.7M $10.6M $13.4M

* $0 because the Spurs keep their exceptions under this
scenario, and they take up all the cap space. In the
remaining three scenarios (positive cap space), the Spurs
lose their exceptions.

So the basic situation is that they have no cap room
without renouncing Hedo or Bowen. They MAY have a moderate
amount by renouncing Bowen only ($43.2M is the break-even
point for the cap). They will definitely have cap room if
they renounce both Bowen and Hedo.

Now here's the worst news for them -- Manu is a restricted
free agent, but is only a two-year veteran. This means the
Spurs do not have full Bird rights to him. They only have
Early-Bird rights, which means they can only re-sign him to
an amount equal to the MLE or to their cap room, whichever
is greater [see what happened with Gilbert Arenas last
summer].

If the Spurs want to protect their right of first refusal,
they have to preserve their cap room. Since the maximum for
a 0-6 player is 25% of the cap, another team could sign him
for the maximum salary and they'd have to renounce Bowen AND
Hedo to re-sign him, and would have little cap space left
after they match.

The bottom line:
1. The Spurs have no free agent money, and very little
flexibility in re-signing Ginobili, unless they renounce
Bowen.

2. The Spurs cannot be big players in the free agent market
this summer unless they renounce Bowen AND Turkoglu.

3. Given what happens with Ginobili, they might not even be
little players in the free agent market, even if they DO
renounce Bowen and Turkoglu.

VARIABLES:

The Charlotte expansion draft could remove a contracted player
from the Spurs' roster, which would change these figures. The
Spurs must expose at least one contracted player to Charlotte.
I imagine it would be Rose.

The Spurs could gain a little more cap room (about $700K) by
renouncing their rights to their #1 draft pick.

Another variable is the possibility that the Spurs could re-sign
Turkoglu to a reasonable salary. When this happens, his free
agent amount is replaced with his actual salary, which may give
the Spurs some cap flexibility.


Larry Coon
University of California

The NBA Salary Cap FAQ:
http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm
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  #2  
Old 06-13-04, 10:04 AM
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that's the opposite of everything we read so far

__________________
"We would have two less championships here if it wasn't for Manu Ginobili," Popovich said. "In my book, Manu Ginobili is the stud of the world.
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  #3  
Old 06-13-04, 10:14 AM
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Larry does know more than almost anyone about the cap but his ideas are still speculation. The Spurs do have more options than what he has written here. That post was written about a month ago. Since then Bowen has opted out and Garcia has been released. The Spurs manage cap space with excellent efficiency. Things will work out fine.
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  #4  
Old 06-13-04, 10:16 AM
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Also don't forget Larry Coon is also biased he is a Lakerfan. So its only natural the guy will talk about the worst case scenarious about the spurs. I would take it more seriously if it was from an objective source.
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  #5  
Old 06-13-04, 10:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tempest186
Larry does know more than almost anyone about the cap but his ideas are still speculation. The Spurs do have more options than what he has written here. That post was written about a month ago. Since then Bowen has opted out and Garcia has been released. The Spurs manage cap space with excellent efficiency. Things will work out fine.
Actually he wrote it yesterday in response to a post I made on the Lakers newsgroup - as evidence by his post already including the information that
Bowen's opting out and Horry's option is not picked up, information that wasn't there a month ago.

I agree that the Spurs manage cap space with excellent efficiency. But they
can only do so within the options available. And the options available are
that we can realistically only match any offers Manu gets by renouncing Bowen. And once we've renounced Bowen, he has to take a major pay cut to be a Spur next year. Right?

An there's simply no option on the table that will allow us (as Ludden wrote yesterday) to pursue a max free agent without kissing Manu, Bowen and Rose *all* goodbye.

I'd like to be wrong - if anyone sees options that Larry didn't.....feel free to point them out.
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  #6  
Old 06-13-04, 10:55 AM
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I don't think we need a max FA all we need is a good quality player like Jax or somebody else but we don't need a superstar. I'm confident the spurs will acquire that type of player this summer.
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  #7  
Old 06-13-04, 11:00 AM
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Hedo $5,986,833 (Bird off rookie scale contract)
Bowen $7,300,000 (Bird, not RSC)

These numbers will change either when they re-sign with the Spurs for an amount definitely lower than these, or they sign with another team.
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  #8  
Old 06-13-04, 11:01 AM
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Im not a cap expert leaving that to people that know more (Rc Buford)

all I know is what was reported the other day

Quote:
Though Bowen, who turns 33 on Monday, may ultimately re-sign with the Spurs, his decision is expected to increase the team's salary-cap room to close to $15 million after the league releases its cap figure next month.

Quote:
The Spurs should now have enough room to offer Kobe Bryant a maximum-salary contract
and not that Kobe would come here...but the Spurs can be real players in the FA market
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  #9  
Old 06-13-04, 11:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaSlicer
Also don't forget Larry Coon is also biased he is a Lakerfan. So its only natural the guy will talk about the worst case scenarious about the spurs. I would take it more seriously if it was from an objective source.
Everything he wrote, though, *was* objective. He laid out the facts
about the Spurs cap situation and then listed some of the the logical
consequences of those facts. Unless he got one of those facts wrong
(highly unlikely) or made a mistake in his logic (I'm listening).....we
are screwed. Looks to me like we're pretty much guaranteed to
lose either Manu or Bowen. And could easily lose them both if
Charlotte doesn't pick up Rose in the expansion draft.

If you think we can keep them both, just tell us how it could
possibly happen. That's all I ask.
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  #10  
Old 06-13-04, 11:07 AM
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If we resign Manu obviosly we keep him and with Bowen he has Larry Bird rights. Under that rule the spurs could possibly even go over the cap and then sign him because according to the Bird rights you are allowed to resign your player and go all the way over the cap. There is a slight chance we lose Manu only if the spurs don't act quickly and try to sign him then there is a chance. We also risk losing Bowen if some team decides to go crazy and offer a big contract or if he doesn't want to wait it out for the spurs to sign some quality FA. The most likely case scenaior it looks like the spurs will act quick with Manu and offer him a good deal, and then go after another quality FA in the marker and hope Bowen will patiently wait to be signed. Once they sign that FA they will sign Bowen by using his bird rights to go over the cap.
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  #11  
Old 06-13-04, 11:11 AM
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The Spurs are not screwed. They are in even better shape with what Bowen did

They will still be able to go out and enter the FA market negotiating like they had 15 mil...because there is several ways they would have that space

Bowen or Hedo (if hedo is even coming back..which kinda doubt) could be signed early and not have to be renounced

I think Bowen wants security as in longer deal and has agreed to take less $ to do so..also giving SA more flexiblity this summer
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  #12  
Old 06-13-04, 11:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DizzG
Im not a cap expert leaving that to people that know more (Rc Buford)

all I know is what was reported the other day

Quote : Though Bowen, who turns 33 on Monday, may ultimately re-sign with the Spurs, his decision is expected to increase the team's salary-cap room to close to $15 million after the league releases its cap figure next month.

and not that Kobe would come here...but the Spurs can be real players in the FA market
It was exactly that report that Larry was responding to, Dizz. Sorry, but given the choice between trusting that Ludden or Coon knows what he's talking about in terms of cap options...it's a no-brainer. Larry wins.

The only ways to get anywhere *near* $15 mill in cap room are a) renounce
Bowen and Charlotte picks up Rose or b) renounce both Bowen and Hedo.
Once we renounce Bowen, we can only sign him with available cap
space. So that $10-15 mill has to cover both Manu and Bowen's new contracts (as well as whatever we want to do to replace Horry and Rose or Hedo, unless we replace them with minimum guys) . Still no room to pursue even mid-level free agents like SJax, much less a max guy - unless Bowen agrees to a monster pay cut. But why would he do that?
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  #13  
Old 06-13-04, 11:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DizzG
snip.... or Hedo (if hedo is even coming back..which kinda doubt)
Can you elaborate a little?
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  #14  
Old 06-13-04, 11:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaSlicer
If we resign Manu obviosly we keep him and with Bowen he has Larry Bird rights. Under that rule the spurs could possibly even go over the cap and then sign him because according to the Bird rights you are allowed to resign your player and go all the way over the cap. There is a slight chance we lose Manu only if the spurs don't act quickly and try to sign him then there is a chance. We also risk losing Bowen if some team decides to go crazy and offer a big contract or if he doesn't want to wait it out for the spurs to sign some quality FA. The most likely case scenaior it looks like the spurs will act quick with Manu and offer him a good deal, and then go after another quality FA in the marker and hope Bowen will patiently wait to be signed. Once they sign that FA they will sign Bowen by using his bird rights to go over the cap.
We only have bird rights with Bowen if we don't renounce him. However if we
don't renounce him, the only cap room we can *possibly* have to resign Manu is what we get by renouncing Hedo ($6 mill) and - *if* Charlotte
selects him - what we'd get by clearing Rose off the books ($5.5 mill). Personally, I doubt Manu will sign for Hedo's $6 mill alone - I think he'd get more from another team. *IF* Charlotte takes Rose - which is beyond Buford's control - we could easily resign Manu and keep Bowen's bird rights.
But there won't be enough left to go after another *quality* free agent...and we're left having to replace all of Hedo, Rose, and Horry with only a couple
of mill in cap space

I think the realistic scenarios are: 1) we keep Manu, lose Bowen, can pursue
a medium quality free agent or 2) we keep both Manu and Bowen but have *zero* presence in the FA market. But even those scenarios will be very rosy unless Charlotte takes Malik off our books.
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  #15  
Old 06-13-04, 11:31 AM
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This has only been pointed out by others several times in other threads

again..the Spurs would have to deal with Bowen and Hedo first. Bowen can be signed early to free up $

Bowens counting 150% against the cap only applies until he is renounced or re-signed

I think he wants a longer deal for security and would take less overall first year salary to get it with SA. he has said he expects to play here next year before

Hedo may or may not not even be back...who knows...The Spurs themselves have said they dont know if Hedo and Manu both would be back...and that Manu was the top priority

One or both (hedo/Bowen) would have to be signed early though

The Spurs have lots of different options this summer. Its going to be interest what happens

and if the Spurs got a kobe or T-mac (unlikely) - Manu wouldnt even be here
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  #16  
Old 06-13-04, 11:36 AM
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Wait so Bowen opting out means he counts even more against the cap than he did before (unless the Spurs drop his Bird rights)? Those Bird rights sure are expensive cap-wise.
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  #17  
Old 06-13-04, 11:39 AM
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Bowen would count 150% against the cap unless renounced or re-signed for whatever which that amount would take over. If the Spurs deal with him first that would be replaced with whatever deal they work out..which would prob be a longer deal in years for less starting
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  #18  
Old 06-13-04, 11:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DizzG
This has only been pointed out by others several times in other threads

again..the Spurs would have to deal with Bowen and Hedo first. Bowen can be signed early to free up $

Bowens 7 mil only counts against the cap until we sign Bowen for less than that

I think he wants a longer deal for security and would take less overall first year salary to get it with SA. he has said he expects to play here next year before
I get this. But it doesn't buy us much. Right now, as of this moment, we
have essentially zero cap space (a few hundred thousand in the *best*
case). We need *at least* enough space to re-sign Manu. Right
now, there are only four ways to get it without cap-clearing trades:
1. Renounce Hedo - gets us $6 mill.
2. Renounce Bowen - gets us $7.3 mill
3. Charlotte takes Malik - gets us $5.5 mill, BUT is beyond our control
4. Resign Bowen and/or Hedo early for smaller amounts - buys us the difference between their current salary and their new first year salary.

I figure it's gonna take at *least* $7 mill to sign Manu. If Bowen really is more interested in security and is willing to take a pay cut, maybe we can get
there (and maybe have a mill or two left, depending on how big a cut
Bruce is willing to take and how low Manu will go) by renouncing Hedo
and re-signing Bowen early. That's our *best* chance at keeping both
Manu and Bowen.

But under that scenario the *only* room we have to play in the FA market
is what we get *if* CHarlotte takes Malik. Which isn't gonna be enough
to go after a real quality FA.

That's my point. We can do any two of these three:
- keep Manu
- keep Bowen
- be a player in the FA market
But I don't see any way to do all three. Do you?
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  #19  
Old 06-13-04, 11:58 AM
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Interesting, then this puts the clamps on the Spurs offseason until they deal with it. Hedo should be dropped, and his dropping + whatever the Spurs do with Bowen (who should ultimately count way below the $7M figure) should be enough to keep Manu. That still won't leave the Spurs with enough room to address their needs with shooting and backup PG, unless they also drop Bowen, sign Bowen to significantly less money, succeed in dumping Malik, pull a trade or go through the draft. I like Bowen and want him to stay, but if dropping him is what the Spurs need to do to address their needs, then that's what they need to do. After seeing Brown's game in the LA series I'm not too worried if he does leave. If he wants something starting around $4M (and surely he can get that elsewhere) then the Spurs should just move on.

Last edited by BobEX; 06-13-04 at 12:01 PM.
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  #20  
Old 06-13-04, 12:08 PM
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Is Tony's raise really that much?

Man, rookie contracts ain't that bad after all.

Re: cap stuff, I'll just wait and see. Aren't they allowed to go over to keep Bowen? This stuff is starting to confuse me.
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  #21  
Old 06-13-04, 12:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chaboard
That's my point. We can do any two of these three:
- keep Manu
- keep Bowen
- be a player in the FA market
But I don't see any way to do all three. Do you?
Why on earth would we need to do all 3?

If we sign Kobe or T-Mac, as mentioned in this thread already, we arent going to re-sign Manu. If we sign Kobe, you could arguably say we dont need Bowen anymore as well.
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  #22  
Old 06-13-04, 12:52 PM
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We aren't going to get Kobe period I wish everybody would just give up on this nonsense. No way in hell he's comming here the guy is a media guy he loves the attention it goes well with his narcistic attitude. Hell he was at the MTV awards earlier this week. I just don't see San Antonio as a place that would suit his personality and he won't come here he doesn't want to continue to play in the shadows of a dominant 7fter no matter what even if he is easy to get along with. Get a clue Kobe is an MJ poser he has tried to mimic him throughout his career and going by that he wouldn't play with Duncan. Also Tmac isn't an FA until next year so the spurs would have to trade for him its still pretty slim at this point. Honestly you have to be on crack to believe Manu would agree to playing for the magic.
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  #23  
Old 06-13-04, 12:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amente
Spurs will negotiate as if they have $15 mil in cap room beginning July 1.

The Cap Level probably won't be set until about July 14th, with contracts able to be actually signed around July 15th, which is the time the Spurs renounce or re-sign free agents depending on what needs to be done to accomplish their signings.

Mr. Coon is correct the Sprus technically have no cap room but that is not how teams negotiate with the first two weeks in July.

Example: the Spurs technically had no cap room in 2001 because DRob took up all the cap room with 150% going towards the cap. But they negotiated as if they had $16 mil. in cap room. They signed DRob first for $10 mil and then had $6 mil left for DA.

Example 2: The Spurs didn't really have all the cap room to negotiate with Kidd, Horry, etc. last summer. But yet they did. Wow, how did they do that?!?!

exactly Amente. The Spurs have lots of options this summer and depending on how they go and player interest - could have up to 15 mil to spend. We dont know yet how things will go and most of that will depend on who they want and if those players want to come here. They would then adjust things according to that as you mentioned

I dont see Kidd coming here...or T-mac..but if either of those players did - the Spurs could certainly sign them. There would be no need for Manu or Bowen then if your signing another superstar. I just dont think either is likely

one thing is sure...the Spurs are not "screwed" this summer
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  #24  
Old 06-13-04, 01:01 PM
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Spurs will negotiate as if they have $15 mil in cap room beginning July 1.

The Cap Level probably won't be set until about July 14th, with contracts able to be actually signed around July 15th, which is the time the Spurs renounce or re-sign free agents depending on what needs to be done to accomplish their signings.

Mr. Coon is correct the Sprus technically have no cap room but that is not how teams negotiate with the first two weeks in July.

Example: the Spurs technically had no cap room in 2001 because DRob took up all the cap room with 150% going towards the cap. But they negotiated as if they had $16 mil. in cap room. They signed DRob first for $10 mil and then had $6 mil left for DA.

Example 2: The Spurs didn't really have all the cap room to negotiate with Kidd, Horry, etc. last summer. But yet they did. Wow, how did they do that?!?!

==========

Another method:

They renounce both Bowen and Hedo.
Now they lose their Bird rights but can still re-sign them if they have the cap room so....

Let's say they are renounced and the Spurs have around $15 mil.

So they re-sign Manu for $7 mil, and still have money for Bowen at $4 mil, Hedo at $3 and still have a mil left over.

Don't worry. The Spurs know what they're doing.

Actually, between Coon, Dizzg and the Spurs FO...I'll take the Spurs FO.
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Old 06-13-04, 01:05 PM
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Quote:
Actually, between Coon, Dizzg and the Spurs FO...I'll take the Spurs FO
I would take the Front office over me any day too
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  #26  
Old 06-13-04, 01:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amente
So they re-sign Manu for $7 mil, and still have money for Bowen at $4 mil, Hedo at $3 and still have a mil left over.

Don't worry. The Spurs know what they're doing.
I know it's not what people around here want, but I think it is likely to look like this (give or take a little on the #'s) The Spurs FO has more knowledge about working the cap than just about any team. Although they would go after any big name FA, I think they are mostly setting things up for the maximum money to keep Manu and Hedo.
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  #27  
Old 06-13-04, 01:20 PM
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Coon is an expert on the cap but at the sametime I think him being biased also hurts. He didn't give us the type of insight Amente has because he wasn't going to make the effort to look at all possible scenarios in which the spurs can come out on top moreso he was looking for every possible way the spurs could be screwed. Its just like writing a research paper in which your trying to make an argument to back up you point; obviously you are going to bring up all the points that backup your argument and bring up only a few that can challenge it but at the sametime your going to make sure you will be able to debunk those points. This is what Coon did.
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  #28  
Old 06-13-04, 01:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amente
Another method:

They renounce both Bowen and Hedo.
Now they lose their Bird rights but can still re-sign them if they have the cap room so....

Let's say they are renounced and the Spurs have around $15 mil.

So they re-sign Manu for $7 mil, and still have money for Bowen at $4 mil, Hedo at $3 and still have a mil left over.

Don't worry. The Spurs know what they're doing.

Actually, between Coon, Dizzg and the Spurs FO...I'll take the Spurs FO.
You just made my point - they resign Manu and Bowen....and they're
not players in the FA market. That's all I'm saying.....Ludden wrote
as if all the sudden the Spurs had the room to go after a max free agent.
Well, they might...but only if they give up Manu AND Bowen AND either
Hedo or Rose. We're not going to be a player in the FA market this year
if we plan on keeping Bruce and Manu. Not even for medium level players.

That's all I'm saying. The math just doesn't work.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ProjectGSX
Why on earth would we need to do all 3?
I didn't say we need to. I like this team and I can live with keeping the core
of it together and not making any major acquisitions.. I'm just trying to
point out that when Ludden said we might have up to $15 mill to play with it was a bit deceptive in that nearly all of that will be required just to stand pat.

Regardless - Duncan, Parker, Manu and Bowen will be enough to keep us in title hunts for several years to come.
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  #29  
Old 06-13-04, 01:58 PM
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Expert or no expert, although respected, both Rosenbaum and Coon don't have ALL THE FACTS. While their hypotheses may come close, it ain't exact.

Last year the Spurs got back $14 Mill in Escrow payments for being within the terms of the cap. THEY KNOW WHAT THE HELL THEY ARE DOING and will NEVER EVER overpay for talent.
http://www.uncg.edu/eco/rosenbaum/luxtax.html
Quote:
Chicago, Detroit, Golden State, and especially Phoenix may find themselves paying luxury taxes in some worst case scenarios. Otherwise, they will join Atlanta, Cleveland, Denver, Los Angeles Clippers, Miami, Milwaukee, New Orleans, Orlando, Seattle, San Antonio, Utah, and Washington in being non-taxpayers and receiving $14 to $17 million in luxury/escrow tax distributions (it will be a little less after currency assistance and disabled player assistance is taken out).
The Spurs know their shiznecky.
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  #30  
Old 06-13-04, 02:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chaboard
I didn't say we need to.
Why ask the question at all then?
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  #31  
Old 06-13-04, 02:34 PM
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Quote:
Manu $1,894,750 (two-year vet)
I respect Mr. Coon's efforts, but even he screws up every once in a while.

Manu is an Early Bird free agent, so following Coon's site he would actually count $2,006,550 against the cap.

link

Nobody's perfect.

Carry on.
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  #32  
Old 06-13-04, 02:55 PM
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Somebody should give a course on NBA Salary Cap 101, Orientation, cause I don't understand a thing, but if RC and Pop say they can do it, then who am I to argue witht them. Like how you renounce someone who has opted out of his contract and becomes a free agent, what are you renouncing, his bird rights, or some side dish? Arghhhhh, now I'm getting a headache. I just want Manu and Bowen back, if Hedo has to go to bad, we can find someone else, I think.
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  #33  
Old 06-13-04, 02:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChumpDumper
I respect Mr. Coon's efforts, but even he screws up every once in a while.

Manu is an Early Bird free agent, so following Coon's site he would actually count $2,006,550 against the cap.

link

Nobody's perfect.

Carry on.
You may be right, but it's hard to tell without sure knowledge of Manu's salary this year. I *know* Larry has official access to that. You, I'm not so sure. (: wink . He may well be wrong, neither he nor I would claim he's infallible....but where'd you get the figure of $1,543,500 for this year's salary?
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  #34  
Old 06-13-04, 02:59 PM
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Chaboard go to www.hoopshype.com at this site you can look up player salaries and information about the cap.
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  #35  
Old 06-13-04, 03:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chaboard
from Larry Coon, whose cap expertise is second to none:


Signed players:
Duncan $14,260,641
Rasho $6,160,000
Rose $5,462,500
Parker $1,545,441
total: $27,428,582

Team options:
Horry $0 (already declined)
Brown $695,046 (a lock to be picked up)

Player options:
Bowen $0 (already opted out)

Draft picks:
Pick #28 $701,400

Free agent amounts:
Manu $1,894,750 (two-year vet)
Hedo $5,986,833 (Bird off rookie scale contract)
Bowen $7,300,000 (Bird, not RSC)
Others $0 (SA will dump, so I didn't bother)

This all adds up to $44,006,611. I'll round to $44.0
million for the rest of this analysis.

Now let's consider the cap. Dan Rosenbaum expects it to
fall between $41.3 million and $44.4 million
(http://www.uncg.edu/bae/people/rosenbaum/luxtax.html),
and the MLE to be around $4.9 million again.

Even in the best-case scenario, the Spurs will be only
a few hundred thousand under the cap, and their exceptions
would eat up all their cap room. In order to gain any
room to sign players, they would have to renounce Bowen,
and possibly Hedo as well. Here is their team salary at
the high and low ends without one or both:

w/o Bowen: $36,706,611
w/o Bowen or Hedo: $30,719,778

So here is the cap room for each team salary level (rounded
to nearest $100K), at the low and high ends, assuming the
Spurs will carry $6.5 million in exceptions:

Team $41.3M $44.1M
Salary Cap Cap
------ ------ ------
$36.7M $0* $7.4M
$30.7M $10.6M $13.4M

* $0 because the Spurs keep their exceptions under this
scenario, and they take up all the cap space. In the
remaining three scenarios (positive cap space), the Spurs
lose their exceptions.

So the basic situation is that they have no cap room
without renouncing Hedo or Bowen. They MAY have a moderate
amount by renouncing Bowen only ($43.2M is the break-even
point for the cap). They will definitely have cap room if
they renounce both Bowen and Hedo.

Now here's the worst news for them -- Manu is a restricted
free agent, but is only a two-year veteran. This means the
Spurs do not have full Bird rights to him. They only have
Early-Bird rights, which means they can only re-sign him to
an amount equal to the MLE or to their cap room, whichever
is greater [see what happened with Gilbert Arenas last
summer].

If the Spurs want to protect their right of first refusal,
they have to preserve their cap room. Since the maximum for
a 0-6 player is 25% of the cap, another team could sign him
for the maximum salary and they'd have to renounce Bowen AND
Hedo to re-sign him, and would have little cap space left
after they match.

The bottom line:
1. The Spurs have no free agent money, and very little
flexibility in re-signing Ginobili, unless they renounce
Bowen.

2. The Spurs cannot be big players in the free agent market
this summer unless they renounce Bowen AND Turkoglu.

3. Given what happens with Ginobili, they might not even be
little players in the free agent market, even if they DO
renounce Bowen and Turkoglu.

VARIABLES:

The Charlotte expansion draft could remove a contracted player
from the Spurs' roster, which would change these figures. The
Spurs must expose at least one contracted player to Charlotte.
I imagine it would be Rose.

The Spurs could gain a little more cap room (about $700K) by
renouncing their rights to their #1 draft pick.

Another variable is the possibility that the Spurs could re-sign
Turkoglu to a reasonable salary. When this happens, his free
agent amount is replaced with his actual salary, which may give
the Spurs some cap flexibility.


Larry Coon
University of California

The NBA Salary Cap FAQ:
http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm

The Spurs can have 15 mil or at least pretty damn close to it. There is one problem with this article and that is that the The cap hit of Manu's contract should not be considered when you are trying to sign him. It will come off once he is signed. Also do not count the draft choice as that is available to be delt. If the Spurs need the money they will trade it away for a pick next year.

w/o Bowen or Hedo: $30,719,778
w/o Manu Cap hit: $28,825,028
w/o draft choice: $28,123,628
Cap = 42.85 ($41.3mil - $44.4mil)

Available under the cap: $14,726,372

So there you have it. Now there is the small part about not having enough players and there cap hit which is minimal but at least that is where the 15mil is comming from.

Now a Just throwing out hypathetical numbers here to show how the Spurs could play in free agency.

Manu $7.6 mil/yr 5.6mil 1st yr (7yr deal)
Jax $6.75mil/yr 5.4mil 1st yr (6 year deal)
Barry $ 3.85mil/yr 3.5mil 1st yr (3 yr deal)

Now I have no I dea if the Spurs would do this. I just put those up to give an idea of what can be done. Or you could sign a higher quality free agent by shipping off Manu and Malik and still may have over the MLE for another player.

Question:
Can Bowen sign with the Spurs for the vet min this year and then sign a larger contract next year using his bird rights or give a big pay day ala AJ
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  #36  
Old 06-13-04, 03:03 PM
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Quote:
I *know* Larry has official access to that.
Only NBA employess would have such access.
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  #37  
Old 06-13-04, 03:17 PM
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Quote:
I *know* Larry has official access to that.
Coon has a nice FAQ site on the CBA but he has no real true access to the #'s

I trust the Spurs front office 10 fold over what Coon puts out..as helpful and fun to speculate as it may be

The point amente made earlier is a good one. The Spurs are going to negotiate come July 1 as if they have 15 million because depending on their course and what interest players show they like...the could have much as that or not

We can go though 100 senerios but believe me the Spurs FO is way far ahead of that and knows how to work things better than Larry Coon
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  #38  
Old 06-13-04, 03:21 PM
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Besides, I actually used the numbers on Coon's site, so if you're saying I'm wrong, you're saying he's wrong too.

Either way, he's wrong. Not a huge difference--he's just not infallible.
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  #39  
Old 06-13-04, 03:40 PM
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Simply put, the Spurs can do one of the following:

1. Resign Bowen and Manu then fill the holes left with bargains.

2. Successfully get rid of Rose without taking on anything, resign Bowen and Manu and add an MLE+ type player.

3. Trade for a superstar, needs Manu's approval.

4. Sign a superstar, give up both Bowen and Manu.

But then it's pretty obvious 3 and 4 won't happen. Manu won't approve being shipped to a crappy team (unless someone seriously overpay him), and the Spurs are not going to get any superstar given the environment (if you know what i mean).

What's most important is for people to change their concept on what's 'being screwed'. If you think fail to land a superstar is 'being screwed', then live with it, we've been 'screwed' for a long long time. Where did we get DRob and TD? From the draft! We've never landed a superstar before, and probably never in the future without a high pick. That's what small market team is all about. Even when we had a lot of cap space last year we landed nothing.
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  #40  
Old 06-13-04, 03:43 PM
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Quote:
1. Resign Bowen and Manu then fill the holes left with bargains.
Even if the Spurs do re-sign Bowen and Manu, they should have room for a player around the MLE if the cap remains relatively the same. (unless Manu gets outrageous money)
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  #41  
Old 06-13-04, 03:46 PM
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If we have the MLE or a little more after those two I will be happy. Some people want a superstar badly but I more realistic about the spurs chances of that happening which are very slim. A great off-season would be signing Bowen and Manu and then getting a good decent player like Barry or even possibly Jax.
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  #42  
Old 06-13-04, 04:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MARIO
Even if the Spurs do re-sign Bowen and Manu, they should have room for a player around the MLE if the cap remains relatively the same. (unless Manu gets outrageous money)
It's not the same, it's going down, at least that's what projected by analysts. Also, I do think Manu will get more than MLE per year in the end, but that's just an opinion though.
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  #43  
Old 06-13-04, 04:35 PM
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I have seen writers say the cap may go down and even some say up

until its released there is no way to know. I wouldnt bet anything either way
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  #44  
Old 06-13-04, 04:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaSlicer
Chaboard go to www.hoopshype.com at this site you can look up player salaries and information about the cap.

Yeah, I know about hoopshype. But note that they do have a lot
of mistakes according to those with access to the official numbers. Which, Dizzy (responding to another post in this thread), *does* include Larry. He has a login on the password-restricted league site for players and agents where the official numbers are available. His data can be trusted a lot more than hoopshype.com

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChumpDumper
Besides, I actually used the numbers on Coon's site, so if you're saying I'm wrong, you're saying he's wrong too.

Either way, he's wrong. Not a huge difference--he's just not infallible.

Sorry, was just wondering - didn't mean to accuse you of anything.
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  #45  
Old 06-13-04, 05:01 PM
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Quote:
He has a login on the password-restricted league site for players and agents
Im not sure about that

Coon admits on his site that this is just a hobby and "The author of this FAQ is not connected to the NBA, any of its teams or the Players Association."

He also admits that his FAQ isnt 100% accurate and asks people to send him errors

His site is a collection of info from several different people that helped him research.

Coon has a lot of good info on the CBA but unless he is sitting in cap planning converstaions with RC and Pop or in the front office of another team going over real #'s he isnt privy to "everything"

in fact the link he gives in his FAQ for people to find player salaries is Patricia Bender's site

she has good info too...but its known she isnt always accurate either...that has been seen around here several times before

There is no way some guy with a CBA site as a hobby has direct access to NBA systems
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  #46  
Old 06-13-04, 05:43 PM
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Quote:
You just made my point - they resign Manu and Bowen....and they're
not players in the FA market. That's all I'm saying.....Ludden wrote
as if all the sudden the Spurs had the room to go after a max free agent.
Well, they might...but only if they give up Manu AND Bowen AND either
Hedo or Rose. We're not going to be a player in the FA market this year
if we plan on keeping Bruce and Manu. Not even for medium level players.

That's all I'm saying. The math just doesn't work.

argh!
You still don't get it.
They do.
They will negotiate from July 1 to July 15th as if they have $15 mil.
If a superstar agrees to sign with SA then at that time they can renounce Manu, Bowen and Hedo if they wished or else work out a sign-n-trade.

Quote:
We're not going to be a player in the FA market this year
if we plan on keeping Bruce and Manu.
No one said they could sign a big time FA and still re-sign Manu, Bowen and/or Hedo. Though it may be possible to sign and big FA and still re-sign Bowen and/or Hedo but that's only if either or both Bowne and Hedo are not renounced.
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  #47  
Old 06-13-04, 05:44 PM
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Amente I have never expected the spurs to go out and get a superstar during FA but what are their chances of picking up a good role player ala Brent Barry this offseason?
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  #48  
Old 06-13-04, 05:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amente
argh!
You still don't get it.
They do.
They will negotiate from July 1 to July 15th as if they have $15 mil.
If a superstar agrees to sign with SA then at that time they can renounce Manu, Bowen and Hedo if they wished or else work out a sign-n-trade.

No one said they could sign a big time FA and still re-sign Manu, Bowen and/or Hedo.
Don't you know - this off-season we are supposed to keep Manu and Bruce, sign Kobe, trade for T-Mac, and still have enough money to bring back Jax!
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  #49  
Old 06-13-04, 05:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaSlicer
Amente I have never expected the spurs to go out and get a superstar during FA but what are their chances of picking up a good role player ala Brent Barry this offseason?

Their chances of re-signing Manu, Bowen and also acquiring a Barry/Sprewell are much better now that Bowen has opted out. They will be in even better shape if they can somehow move Rose as well without getting any salary in return.
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  #50  
Old 06-13-04, 05:56 PM
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Quote:
He has a login on the password-restricted league site for players and agents where the official numbers are available.
lol

Then someone's getting fired.
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