Blair Tops Draft Analysis

[FunkySpur]

Take a look at this analysis of the recent draft:

http://www.wagesofwins.com/PAWS40Draft09.html

It ranks 2009 draft players in terms of the best Position Adjusted Win Score per 40 minutes (PAWS40). The Win Score is a weighted sum of points, rebounds, steals, blocks, and assists, which is reduced by shot attempts, turnovers, and fouls. This is adjusted to take position and time played into account, creating the PAWS40.

PAWS40 Rank. Player (# in draft), PAWS40, Team

1. DeJuan Blair (#37), 22.0, Spurs
2. Blake Griffin (#1), 18.9, Clippers
3. Ty Lawson, (#18) 15.6, Nuggets
4. Ahmad Nevins (#56), 15.3. Mavs
5. Lester Hudson (#57), 15.1, Celtics

Did you say, "who are these guys?" Nevins is from St. Joseph's, and Hudson from Tennessee-Martin, so you might forgive NBA teams for not trusting their competition. Yet these teams still landed very productive players at near risk-less pick spots! We know Griffin's and Blair's stories, and the Nuggets did well with their 18th pick by this analysis, and most (certainly I) thought this initially.

Top picks with low PAWS40

PAWS40 Rank. Player (# in draft), PAWS40, Team

32. Tyreke Evans (#4), 9.7, Kings
33. Gerald Henderson (#10), Bobcats
38. Jonny Flynn (#5), 8.6, TWolves
39. DeMar DeRozan (#8), 8.5, Raptors
43. B.J. Mullens (#20), 7.7, Thunder

This PAWS40 is a composite measure of what players did on the main statistical categories. It does not get into probability of injury or character issues. PAWS40 is a simple additive measure of basketball productivity or effectiveness.

One might see the correlation in the quality of teams and the draft pick savvy. Though the Clippers made the easy call at #1, the Spurs, Mavs, Nuggets, and Celtics spent late picks on top producers. One wonders what other reasons might justify other teams using earlier picks, with its much bigger dollars, on far less productive players.

Go Spurs Go!

[theinswes]

Originally Posted by FunkySpur

One might see the correlation in the quality of teams and the draft pick savvy. Though the Clippers made the easy call at #1, the Spurs, Mavs, Nuggets, and Celtics spent late picks on top producers. One wonders what other reasons might justify other teams using earlier picks, with its much bigger dollars, on far less productive players.

i think it's pretty easy... other teams aren't just looking at what a player did in college, especially given some of these kids only being freshmen - they're looking at what trasnaltes to the nba. there's been countless guys who were stars in college who don't translate to nba stars. of course, there's also guys who produceed well in college and end up as very good role players in the nba. we have that 'great role player' in blair, while others have potential to be all-stars. griffin is at the top because on top of terrific production, he still has great upside. blair was perfect for us because he produced in college and his rebounding will carry over very well to the pros - but i wouldn't be surprised if jordan hill for example in a few years is clearly better overall than blair.

[theinswes]

just for coparison's sake, their '06 rankings:
1. Paul Millsap
2. Tyrus Thomas
3. Shelden Williams
4. Renaldo Balkman
5. Brandon Roy
6. Rajon Rondo
7. LaMarcus Aldridge
8. Ronnie Brewer
9. Craig Smith
10. Adam Morrison
11. Leon Powe
12. Rudy Gay
13. Shawne Williams
14. Cedric Simmons
15. Randy Foye
Reviewing the 2006 NBA Draft


for '07:
1. Nick Fazekas
2. Kevin Durant
3. Al Horford
4. Greg Oden
5. Joakim Noah
6. Stephane Lasme
7. Jared Dudley
8. Dominic McGuire
9. Herbert Hill
10. Aaron Gray
11. Jason Smith
12. Morris Almond
13. Julian Wright
14. Reshawn Terry
15. Brandan Wright
http://www.wagesofwins.com/Draft2007.html

[maldoror]

How well a player does in college means something but some players are great in college and they can't do it in the NBA. You just don't know until they get out there and play. Determining how good a player will be in the NBA is a very inexact science. The best GMs have made lots of picks that were busts. The top ranked PAWS player in 07 was drafted #34 that year and was a bust.

theinswes:
for '07:
1. Nick Fazekas
Fazekas was released by the Mavericks on February 19, 2008
2. Kevin Durant
3. Al Horford
4. Greg Oden
5. Joakim Noah

[old timer]

Yes, but looking at the types of players, who it works best forhorford, Noah, Milsap, etal fit with Blair and Grffith. None of it matters until thy hit the hardwood.

[TRslick81]

exactly well get to c first hand what blair can do on the nba hardwood