I have a theory, now hear me out on this...

[Malice]

TD's struggles have everything to do with his injuries. However, you can also argue that it's also a combination of his injuries and teams maybe figuring out his offensive moves and tendencies.
Some Examples: I've honestly lost count how many times this year TD will pump fake take a step couple steps to the middle and another player is WAITING to either strip the ball or force a jump ball. Plus TD is not getting to his favorite spots on the floor anymore. When is the last time you saw him bank a 15-20 footer off the glass? How about 1 time in the last week! Defenders are beating him to his fav spots or flat out denying him those spots. As silly as it might sound I really think some teams have really done their homework on TD, and as much as I hate to say it, he has become very predictable in the painted area. I've seen TD fustrated in past years, but never to the extent we've seen this year.

Please note this is not bashing of our big guy, just some observations. I'm as frustrated as the next guy with his sub par play of late, but the bottom line is we live and die with this guy. Our championship aspirations begin and end with the play of #21....Let's just hope TD can get somewhat healthy and figure it out the second half.

[Falcone]

What I have noticed lately is that the rest of the players literally just stand around when Timmy gets the ball. I wish we could have more movement so it does not all fall on Timmy to make the plays.

[Derek Flint]

Your theory may hold water, but to put it more succinctly:

Because he's lost mobility due to injury he can't create as much as he used to.

[Supernatural Anesthetist]

Originally Posted by Malice

TD's struggles have everything to do with his injuries. However, you can also argue that it's also a combination of his injuries and teams maybe figuring out his offensive moves and tendicies.
Some Examples: I've honestly lost count how many times this year TD will pump fake take a step couple steps to the middle and another player is WAITING to either strip the ball or force a jump ball. Plus TD is not getting to his favorite spots on the floor anymore. When is the last time you saw him bank a 15-20 footer off the glass? How about 1 time in the last week! Defenders are beating him to his fav spots or flat out denying him those spots. As silly as it might sound I really think some teams have really done their homework on TD, and as much as I hate to say it, he has become very predictable in the painted area. I've seen TD fustrated in past years, but never to the extent we've seen this year.

Please note this is not bashing of our big guy, just some observations. I'm as frustrated as the next guy with his sub par play of late, but the bottom line is we live and die with this guy. Our championship aspirations begin and end with the play of #21....Let's just hope TD can get somewhat healthy and figure it out the second half.

Teams have always known Timmy's tendencies. The fact of the matter is, when he is healthy, it does them no good because he has the timing and athletic skill to enforce his game on whoever tries to guard him. They know whats coming but STILL can't stop it. With the nagging (but thankfully acute) injuries Duncan is less dominant, making moves that are usually money somewhat easier to defend.

Honestly, people are worrying too much about Tim. If anything he is far more comfortable in the league now than he ever was and will be even more dominant when he finally gets healthy (and he will) ...bookmark it.

[Flipmode Master]

Originally Posted by Supernatural Anesthetist

Teams have always known Timmy's tendencies. The fact of the matter is, when he is healthy, it does them no good because he has the timing and athletic skill to enforce his game on whoever tries to guard him. They know whats coming but STILL can't stop it. With the nagging (but thankfully acute) injuries Duncan is less dominant, making moves that are usually money somewhat easier to defend.

Honestly, people are worrying too much about Tim. If anything he is far more comfortable in the league now than he ever was and will be even more dominant when he finally gets healthy (and he will) ...bookmark it.

Exactly Tim has ALWAYS been predictable and it NEVER mattered but with the injuries he seems more human. All Tim has to do is adjust his moves to throw the other team off guard...a few slight changes should do so.

[Supernatural Anesthetist]

Originally Posted by Falcone

What I have noticed lately is that the rest of the players literally just stand around when Timmy gets the ball. I wish we could have more movement so it does not all fall on Timmy to make the plays.

I have noticed some motion problems as well. Its nice when Horry is in the game as if he senses it he will start waving guys around to start stirring the pot. Manu and Tony tend to exclusively try to break it down with their dribble...sometimes they need to direct traffic a bit more if things aren't flowing offensively.

[Malice]

Cant argue with any of this

[bcl11oc]

I think the injury's of last season are taking their toll on Timmy's game a little bit. He will be fine after the all-star break.

[Jason R]

He's looked good enough recently... not his best but better.

Honestly, his moves are predictable, but his success has to do with health as well as his fundamentals. When he's healthy he's able to take it inside better, get more lift on his shots, etc.

[santys]

TD is predictable and so is Shaq. However, both are unstoppable when they are healthy. I think teams have adjusted over the last few years. Duncan has been one the best for the last few years.

Having said that, I do think we are going to see a better Duncan after the all star break. I think he improved tremondously in the 2 outings (given his recent form) against the Cavaliers and Sixers. I think he will average 22 ppg, 12 rpg, 3 asstpg and 2.3 bpg for the remaining 32 games.

[MrDeeds]

Originally Posted by Supernatural Anesthetist

Honestly, people are worrying too much about Tim. If anything he is far more comfortable in the league now than he ever was and will be even more dominant when he finally gets healthy (and he will) ...bookmark it.

I hope you're right. Cause I don't think we win the championship with the current Timmy. He needs to be healthy in the playoffs.

[bcl11oc]

Originally Posted by santys

TD is predictable and so is Shaq. However, both are unstoppable when they are healthy. I think teams have adjusted over the last few years. Duncan has been one the best for the last few years.

I would have to agree. When Duncan is healthy he is harder to play than Shaq, less predictable, since Shaq has the more dominant game inside with less fundamentals like Timmy, Shaq is a matchup teams can prepare their defense for about the same, night in, night out. A healthy Tim Duncan is harder to prepare for on any given night. That is why Tim has won 3 NBA titles. Shaq had Kobe's help nightly. In 2005 Duncan had Manu's help nightly. However, Duncan's fundamentals are what seperate him from Shaq, and make him less predictable.

[TodTango]

I'm of the opinion that much of his struggles are when he plays with guys who aren't longtime members of "THE SYSTEM".

Sometimes, when guys like Nick & Fin & Nazr are in the game, that they haven't yet figured out when the plays flow, it gets kind of mechanical but because this is the Spurs and the emphasis is defense and ball control, against most of the teams, this ain't a problem. But against good teams, it seems like many are just staying right where they are. It's so 2001 4-Down where everyone watches Tim and waits as an outlet in case he needs it.

All these guys are more mobile than Steve Smith but they just aren't as instictive as TP & Manu or even Steve Kerr when he was here. The 1 guy who I don't mind standing around waiting as an outlet is...SEAN MARKS. Many of those scoring droughts could've been minimized if Marks was in for just a few minutes. Strange I know, but I'm now a big believer in Kiwi's ability to stretch out the interior with those jumpers just like kerr would do at times, and well, he has been with the team now for 3 seasons so he knows the system far better than Nick & Fin & Nazr.
FREE KIWI!!!

[Supernatural Anesthetist]

Originally Posted by TodTango

FREE KIWI!!!

Can I get an Amen?

[MarineForLife]

Originally Posted by Supernatural Anesthetist

Can I get an Amen?

hey now . . . you're an athiest, remember?!

---------------------------------

Granted, TD's injuries have limited his mobility and thereby his creative ability and the strength of his play . . . but if you recall, he entered the PO's last yr @ about 75%, and we still won it all. If you recall further, it was TIM DUNCAN, playing @ about 80%, who won Game 7 of the Finals last yr by demanding the ball, playing the low post strong, getting the opposition into foul trouble, and when getting doubled or tripled passing the ball to the open man who could make the shots or drive to the hole.

Timmy will NOT fail us . . . do NOT EVER think otherwise.

We ALL thought seriously about the possibility that Timmy had lost his heart last yr after we lost Game 6 of the Finals . . . admit it . . . we all secretly had that terrible thought . . . and Timmy didn't get angry at us . . . he just went out and took accountability for his role on the team and PROVED US ALL WRONG.

Timmy will not fail us. Don't even think about it.

Even with an injured and frustrated Timmy, we're @ 40-11 and right in the thick of things for the WC Championship and homecourt for the Finals. We'll be OK. Lots of game left to play yet. Plenty of things can happen. When the injury bug gets the Pistons - and it will happen - we'll be right where we want to be.

[BlitzKriegBop]

I really think (ok, so hoping and praying) that tim will get healthy.

People will hound me for saying this, but I firmly believe the spurs would have swept the nuggets and the suns if tim was 100% last year. Not to mention, I think they'd take the detroit series in 5 or 6 games. THAT'S how confident I am in Tim's ability when he's not injured.

[schematic]

WE need to mix in some of the motion offense we used at times against Denver in the playoffs last year.

[jsandiego]

I'm sure i'm not the only one that's noticed.. but when Duncan's in the game, it limits our offensive mobility as a TEAM, not just TD the individual. We end up relegated to dozens of high-screen pick 'n rolls at the top of the key for TP and Gino; or the ever-popular 4-down.

Once (If?) his mobility comes back this year, we'll be unstoppable. If it doesn't come back, we're gonna have to bear down and try to get it done like last year.

Healthy Timmy = no chance for the rest of the L
Timmy w/Bill Walton feet = tough road ahead to win the title

[DaSlicer]

Originally Posted by BlitzKriegBop

I really think (ok, so hoping and praying) that tim will get healthy.

People will hound me for saying this, but I firmly believe the spurs would have swept the nuggets and the suns if tim was 100% last year. Not to mention, I think they'd take the detroit series in 5 or 6 games. THAT'S how confident I am in Tim's ability when he's not injured.

Wow something we both agree on for once. Yeah I have felt the same way and said it few times around here the exct samething you have said about how the results of last years playoffs would have been slightly different had Tim been at hundred percent.

[MarineForLife]

Originally Posted by BlitzKriegBop

I really think (ok, so hoping and praying) that tim will get healthy.

People will hound me for saying this, but I firmly believe the spurs would have swept the nuggets and the suns if tim was 100% last year. Not to mention, I think they'd take the detroit series in 5 or 6 games. THAT'S how confident I am in Tim's ability when he's not injured.

You're absolutely right. We probably should have swept the Suns in spite of Timmy's injured status. And we were up 2-0 on the Pistons in spite of Timmy's injured status.

Folks, stop worrying. We'll be OK as long as we:

1) continue to develop team chemistry
2) keep getting healthier and avoid any more injuries
3) keep winning as many games as we can

[bnwhuxley]

Is Tim predictable nowadays? Yes.

Well, lets make some predictions.

Tim gets the ball on the left block, back facing the basket. What does he do?

* If the guy is crowding him, Tim uses the inside pivot, jabsteps to the right, and dribbles left towards the basket. He'll finish with his RIGHT hand though.

* If the guy lays off and keeps his hand outstretched, Tim uses the inside pivot to face up and survey the situation.

** If he thinks he has time to dribble a few times, he'll turn his back to the basket, do that, and finish with the right handed jump hook in the middle. On very rare occasions, when the defender overplays the middle, Tim will employ the spin move off the dribble. He no longer employs the spin-to-baseline fadeaway jumper.

** If he thinks he can't move the opponent with strength, then he'll try to jabstep, hoping either to get the opponent off balance so he can drive, or to freeze the opponent and shoot the bank shot. But his bank shot accuracy has dropped quite a bit, so nobody bothers to bite on his jabsteps nowadays. He no longer uses a variation of the crossover, where he dribbles to the middle, then crosses to baseline.

What about the right block? Tim's game here is all back-to-the basket, because for some reason he doesn't shoot the bank shot from the right block.

Tim's strongest move is to back his opponent down, then spins baseline and shoot the right-handed jump hook. In the past two seasons, he has set up much closer to baseline, so when he spins, he doesn't use glass. In previous seasons, he set up further up, and used better footwork to clear space and shoot the shot off glass, which is a higher percentage shot.

Nowadays though, defenders do not allow him to spin baseline. They overplay him there so he has to go to the middle. Tim is still not comfortable using his left hand jump hook. Typically he uses a one hand push shot with his right hand (a shot that Rasheed blocks with terrifying regularity), or he uses the up and under against less experienced defenders.

Tim also used to have a step-back fadeaway off a few backing-down dribbles at the right block. He's hit some gamewinners using that shot, but I've not seen him shoot that shot in a very long time.



So what has happened to make Tim so predictable (and sometimes eminently stoppable) ?

- Tim has drastically reduced his repertoire of moves.
- Tim has, over the past 8 years, failed to develop his left hand sufficiently.
- Tim's bank shot has really not been working with regularity nowadays.

The first point might have something to do with his plantar fasciitis or lingering effects of bad ankles, but the other points are squarely on him. Most annoying of all is how bad his left hand has become. In last year's Finals, if he only had a decent left handed jump hook, he could have dealt with the Wallaces much more easily. Yet this season he didn't come back with a working left handed jump hook. That is a source of disappointment for me.

[dreadlocd]

LOL....you are soooo right....he will finish a left hand dribble move with a RIGHT HANDED SHOT....that pisses me to the highest level of pisstivity....LOL...it works against wack opponents.....but against skilled ones it gets blocked bcuz he is putting it right in their face

but the one I really hate is the post up where .....he gets doubled/tripled....or theyre lurking in range and he picks up his dribble and pivots TOWARDS the double/triple team (wtf?) so he can get hacked up w/out any calls being made....oh no...ANOTHER turnover....at a bad time too...the 4th qtr.....LOL....these things are avoidable....im screaming at the TV: "pivot AWAY from them...why are you trying to split the defense!?!"

[callo1]

Timmy relies on footwork to make his game flow...add foot injuries into the mix and we get exactly what we are seeing...a TD that still busts ass most every night, but a TD that isn't able to dominate like we are accustomed to seeing.

We Spur fans are so fortunate to have a guy like TD that goes out and plays hurt. Look at last years ankle injury in the Sonics series for example. Many NBA players are constantly out due to injuries...look no further than Jermaine O'neil who has missed FAR FAR more games than Timmy over the past few years due to injury.

This Spur run will cease to exist in its present state when TD hangs up the sneakers...we should enjoy every minute of every game until that times comes. I know that I for one take it all for granted sometimes.