NBC Sports: "Maybe you shouldn't expect Al Jefferson to be a Spur

[SilverSpur]

Yesterday we brought you the report from Chris Sheridan that the San Antonio Spurs were way out in front of the pack in terms of trading for Al Jefferson of the Utah Jazz.

The move has some logic — Jefferson is in the last year of his deal, he’s a better player than Tiago Splitter (the guy reportedly part of the package headed to Salt Lake) and if the Spurs are serious about a title run this season Jefferson helps that cause.

But it’s probably not going to happen, says Dan McCarney at the San Antonio Express-News. And he’s got some really solid reasons why.

1. Jefferson is more expensive. While Splitter is set to enjoy a nice payday this summer, it’s doubtful he’ll approach the $14 million Jefferson is due this season. Considering he’s still only 28, Jefferson will likely be searching for something close to that on the open market after averaging at least 16 points and nine rebounds over the past seven seasons.

2. Jefferson is primarily a low-post scorer who doesn’t fit nearly as well as Splitter does with the Spurs’ pick-and-roll heavy offense. He’s effective, scoring 1.1 points per pick-and-roll play to rank 24th in the NBA per Synergy Sports. But he’s involved in such plays on only 8.4 percent of his possessions. Splitter, in contrast, ranks second with 1.39 points per play on 29.1 percent of his possessions.

3. Various other measures indicate Splitter is a better defensive player. The opportunity to play alongside Tim Duncan is a huge reason why. But not only does Jefferson yield more points per possession according to Synergy, the Jazz allow almost 10 points more per 100 possessions when he’s on the court.

4. Can you see the Spurs, who value consistency and continuity like no other franchise in the NBA, executing such a major trade in the midst of a campaign in which they’ve got the league’s best record with a home-heavy schedule over the second half?

To me, numbers one and four are key. Splitter is playing well, playing well within their system and he costs less now and going forward. Are the additional costs and risks really worth the talent upgrade from Splitter to Jefferson? I think if you answered yes to that question you haven’t watched a lot of Splitter this season, he’s playing well.

Besides, if the Spurs and Jazz do a deal it will come out of left field — these are the two tightest-lipped organizations in the game. There will not be leaks, it will just happen and we’ll find out when the league office does.

Still, expect Jefferson or Paul Millsap to get moved somewhere at the deadline.

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.c...-to-be-a-spur/

[Jose_TheGenius]

ugh of course the mainstream media wouldn't know much about the Spurs so getting one "solid" man's opinion would be suffice

1) Jefferson is more expensive, but when are we looking at the long term picture when TD/Manu are in for the short term? do we wanna build a good team that's not promised a title in the future or win a title now?

2) Jefferson is a low post scorer, but Splitter doesn't do anything Duncan couldn't do. Shaq was a prime example in Phoenix. during his PHX tenure, he'd rarely get injured or feel pain because a running style wouldn't take so much out of him, same with Duncan. Splitter picks and rolls, that's it. that's something Duncan and Blair can do. only reason Tiago does it over Blair is for defensive purposes on the other side. Splitter is shooting a higher FG%, but that's attributed to Parker's passing while Jefferson has to create on his own.

3) "various measures", thanks for not explaining them, helps the case. Jefferson is just outrebounding Splitter by 5rpg is all.

4) "such a major trade" because in 2005 we didn't trade our backup PF for a starting C and bump our starting C to the bench? if we got Al Jefferson, he'd start and our depth wouldn't be too much effected since Green/Manu can play the SF position. someone saying this trade wouldn't happen because of that is uninformed.

BTW "costs less now and moving forward", he doesn't know that. Jefferson isn't going to come close to $15 million (when Lebron is getting $18 million). Al will probably get around $10 million, which is precisely what some trash team will most likely offer Tiago and he'll sign the offer sheet.

[Mombear]

Since someone is reporting it... then he's going to the Heat.

Does anyone really know how many players are actually on the Heat??? Seems like there's about 25 or 30...

[alh1020]

Originally Posted by Mombear

Since someone is reporting it... then he's going to the Heat. Does anyone really know how many players are actually on the Heat??? Seems like there's about 25 or 30...

Didn't they just sign the Birdman (Andersen)? Regardless, the Heat probably have some extra jerseys in stock they can lend Jefferson. And Kenyon Martin too.

[choppsboy]

Originally Posted by Jose_TheGenius

ugh of course the mainstream media wouldn't know much about the Spurs so getting one "solid" man's opinion would be suffice

1) Jefferson is more expensive, but when are we looking at the long term picture when TD/Manu are in for the short term? do we wanna build a good team that's not promised a title in the future or win a title now?

2) Jefferson is a low post scorer, but Splitter doesn't do anything Duncan couldn't do. Shaq was a prime example in Phoenix. during his PHX tenure, he'd rarely get injured or feel pain because a running style wouldn't take so much out of him, same with Duncan. Splitter picks and rolls, that's it. that's something Duncan and Blair can do. only reason Tiago does it over Blair is for defensive purposes on the other side. Splitter is shooting a higher FG%, but that's attributed to Parker's passing while Jefferson has to create on his own.

3) "various measures", thanks for not explaining them, helps the case. Jefferson is just outrebounding Splitter by 5rpg is all.

4) "such a major trade" because in 2005 we didn't trade our backup PF for a starting C and bump our starting C to the bench? if we got Al Jefferson, he'd start and our depth wouldn't be too much effected since Green/Manu can play the SF position. someone saying this trade wouldn't happen because of that is uninformed.

BTW "costs less now and moving forward", he doesn't know that. Jefferson isn't going to come close to $15 million (when Lebron is getting $18 million). Al will probably get around $10 million, which is precisely what some trash team will most likely offer Tiago and he'll sign the offer sheet.

I only disagree with the two highlighted areas.

1. Pick and Roll isn't the only thing Tiago does. He also passes very well down low, and get's put back opportunities.
2. Blair's production on pick and rolls is in no way comparable to Tiago. Blair sucks. I am insulted at the comparison. I would even say that Tiago's pick and roll is better than Duncan's (But Duncan more than makes up for that with great pick and pop shooting, and post offense).

I still say Tiago get's no offer sheet because we pay him what works for him and the Spurs.

[Jose_TheGenius]

Originally Posted by choppsboy

I only disagree with the two highlighted areas.

1. Pick and Roll isn't the only thing Tiago does. He also passes very well down low, and get's put back opportunities.
2. Blair's production on pick and rolls is in no way comparable to Tiago. Blair sucks. I am insulted at the comparison. I would even say that Tiago's pick and roll is better than Duncan's (But Duncan more than makes up for that with great pick and pop shooting, and post offense).

I still say Tiago get's no offer sheet because we pay him what works for him and the Spurs.

you don't think Milwaukee, Indiana, or Atlanta, all who could use a Splitter type player and who's easily one of the best centers in the West, will offer him around $10 mill offer sheet? he'd have to take $3-4 mill less in San Antonio and i doubt he loves SA that much.

i would be shocked if the Spurs haven't offered him some kind of extension so far this year since just about every organization does that. that's mostly on Splitter's side than the Spurs.

[choppsboy]

Originally Posted by Jose_TheGenius

you don't think Milwaukee, Indiana, or Atlanta, all who could use a Splitter type player and who's easily one of the best centers in the West, will offer him around $10 mill offer sheet? he'd have to take $3-4 mill less in San Antonio and i doubt he loves SA that much.

i would be shocked if the Spurs haven't offered him some kind of extension so far this year since just about every organization does that. that's mostly on Splitter's side than the Spurs.

I just think the Spurs will take care of things with Tiago to Tiago's satisfaction and Tiago won't entertain offers from other teams. That will probably mean we give Tiago more money than most here are comfortable with, but less than what idiot teams would pay him.

But who knows. Only time will tell.

[bills0]

I think that Al Jefferson is one of those players whose reputation is better that his actual play.

Splitter is shooting a higher FG%, but that's attributed to Parker's passing while Jefferson has to create on his own.

This doesn’t tell the full story. Al Jefferson has a True Shooting percentage (TS%) that is below average for a center. (True shooting percent takes account of 3 pointers and free throws as well as two pointers). An average center has a TS% of 54.1% but Jefferson's is 51.5%.

On the other hand Splitter's TS% is a tremendous 64.7%. The only player in the league playing with a better percentage is Tyson Chandler with 69.2%. There are also about 7 other players clustered about the 64% mark but, still, Splitter is in elite company. Last year he had an even better TS% of 64.9% .

Splitter is shooting a higher FG%, but that's attributed to Parker's passing while Jefferson has to create on his own.

I don't think that Jefferson's shooting woes are due to his having to create on his own. He played for several seasons with Deron Williams who was a pretty good passer himself, and Jefferson's percentage was still below average, albeit a little better than now.

In fact Jefferson has has had a below average TS% ever since his sophomore season, and he has never been better than 55.4%. Splitter, on the other hand, has been above average for his entire career in the NBA, and, for the last two seasons, much better than average.

Because of this Splitter gets 1.59 points per shot whereas Jefferson gets 1.11 points per shot.

Jefferson is just out rebounding Splitter by 5rpg is all.

You should not use rebounds per game for comparing two players because that depends on how much time they are on the floor. For apples-to–apples comparison you should use something like rebounds per 48 min. On this measure Al is still ahead by 2 rebounds per 48 min, but that is not such a big difference. An interesting point is that Splitter is actually a slightly better offensive rebounder than Jefferson (3.3 vs 3.0 per 48).

Jefferson is more expensive, but when are we looking at the long term picture when TD/Manu are in for the short term? do we wanna build a good team that's not promised a title in the future or win a title now?

I think you have this backward. Splitter is performing now, but if the Spurs get Jefferson he probably will not be a major factor for the title run this year. The main thing holding Jefferson back from being the player most people think he is, is his poor shooting. He has been an inefficient shooter his entire career and at 28 years old he is what he is.

There is some reason to think that he is just taking too many bad shots and it is conceivable that Pop would be able to break him of that habit. However, you don't change the way a player has played for his entire career in just a few months. If the Spurs take on Jefferson, it will be as a longer term project. In any event there is no immediate advantage to trading Splitter for him.

[Jose_TheGenius]

Originally Posted by bills0

I think that Al Jefferson is one of those players whose reputation is better that his actual play.



This doesn’t tell the full story. Al Jefferson has a True Shooting percentage (TS%) that is below average for a center. (True shooting percent takes account of 3 pointers and free throws as well as two pointers). An average center has a TS% of 54.1% but Jefferson's is 51.5%.

On the other hand Splitter's TS% is a tremendous 64.7%. The only player in the league playing with a better percentage is Tyson Chandler with 69.2%. There are also about 7 other players clustered about the 64% mark but, still, Splitter is in elite company. Last year he had an even better TS% of 64.9% .



I don't think that Jefferson's shooting woes are due to his having to create on his own. He played for several seasons with Deron Williams who was a pretty good passer himself, and Jefferson's percentage was still below average, albeit a little better than now.

In fact Jefferson has has had a below average TS% ever since his sophomore season, and he has never been better than 55.4%. Splitter, on the other hand, has been above average for his entire career in the NBA, and, for the last two seasons, much better than average.

Because of this Splitter gets 1.59 points per shot whereas Jefferson gets 1.11 points per shot.



You should not use rebounds per game for comparing two players because that depends on how much time they are on the floor. For apples-to–apples comparison you should use something like rebounds per 48 min. On this measure Al is still ahead by 2 rebounds per 48 min, but that is not such a big difference. An interesting point is that Splitter is actually a slightly better offensive rebounder than Jefferson (3.3 vs 3.0 per 48).




I think you have this backward. Splitter is performing now, but if the Spurs get Jefferson he probably will not be a major factor for the title run this year. The main thing holding Jefferson back from being the player most people think he is, is his poor shooting. He has been an inefficient shooter his entire career and at 28 years old he is what he is.

There is some reason to think that he is just taking too many bad shots and it is conceivable that Pop would be able to break him of that habit. However, you don't change the way a player has played for his entire career in just a few months. If the Spurs take on Jefferson, it will be as a longer term project. In any event there is no immediate advantage to trading Splitter for him.

Jefferson's "true shooting %" should be taken into account on the offense. how many times does Tiago create his own shot compared to Parker or another player creating for him? the pick and roll (the majority of the offense for him) is dependent on Parker creating for him. Al Jefferson, on the other hand, has to back down guys when posting up without having others create for him and facing double teams.

again, the shots depend on Parker. how many shots does Splitter actually get on his own? very minimal, probably counting them on one finger. how many times does Big Al get the ball in the paint?

offensive rebounds are a decent stat when the team doesn't make shots. when a team makes the majority of the shots, you don't get a lot of offensive rebounds. not attributing that to the Jazz nor the Spurs in this, but the offensive rebounding category is an inflated statistic. it depends on position of the players and if the coach wants them to get back the majority of the time.

you can do the 48 comparison, but the Jazz don't have much depth in the C position like the Spurs. you can play Favors or Milsap there, but Jefferson is the better option. the Spurs have much more depth where we have Diaw to get a lot of minutes if needed along with Jackson playing the 4. also, Splitter didn't start the season as the center like Jefferson did. the problem also with doing a 48 comparison is that you're basically doubling his production by "guessing" he'd do that. if someone had 15ppg in 24 minutes, he may average more if given an abundant of minutes?

stats are nice, but you have to take into consideration the personnel of the player. how many times could stats have been used (i.e. Stephen Jackson, Speedy Claxton, Richard Jefferson, Roger Mason Jr) and they didn't end up working out on a different team or coming here? Jefferson is, by far, a better center than Splitter and he's shown that for the majority of his career by his own skills and talent. when Tiago can consistently back down players and rebound as much as Jefferson while earning more minutes, then maybe keeping Tiago would be a better option.

especially when this is the only year Tiago has performed (when he's about to get a big paycheck) compared to Jefferson doing this his whole career.

[b1gdon]

Originally Posted by Jose_TheGenius

Jefferson's "true shooting %" should be taken into account on the offense. how many times does Tiago create his own shot compared to Parker or another player creating for him? the pick and roll (the majority of the offense for him) is dependent on Parker creating for him. Al Jefferson, on the other hand, has to back down guys when posting up without having others create for him and facing double teams.

again, the shots depend on Parker. how many shots does Splitter actually get on his own? very minimal, probably counting them on one finger. how many times does Big Al get the ball in the paint?

offensive rebounds are a decent stat when the team doesn't make shots. when a team makes the majority of the shots, you don't get a lot of offensive rebounds. not attributing that to the Jazz nor the Spurs in this, but the offensive rebounding category is an inflated statistic. it depends on position of the players and if the coach wants them to get back the majority of the time.

you can do the 48 comparison, but the Jazz don't have much depth in the C position like the Spurs. you can play Favors or Milsap there, but Jefferson is the better option. the Spurs have much more depth where we have Diaw to get a lot of minutes if needed along with Jackson playing the 4. also, Splitter didn't start the season as the center like Jefferson did. the problem also with doing a 48 comparison is that you're basically doubling his production by "guessing" he'd do that. if someone had 15ppg in 24 minutes, he may average more if given an abundant of minutes?

stats are nice, but you have to take into consideration the personnel of the player. how many times could stats have been used (i.e. Stephen Jackson, Speedy Claxton, Richard Jefferson, Roger Mason Jr) and they didn't end up working out on a different team or coming here? Jefferson is, by far, a better center than Splitter and he's shown that for the majority of his career by his own skills and talent. when Tiago can consistently back down players and rebound as much as Jefferson while earning more minutes, then maybe keeping Tiago would be a better option.

especially when this is the only year Tiago has performed (when he's about to get a big paycheck) compared to Jefferson doing this his whole career.

I have to agree with Jose here. Advanced statistics in basketball have to be taken with a grain of salt. If you drill down into Jefferson's and Splitter's shooting stats, you will see that Jefferson is still a much better scorer than Splitter even though he has a lower eFG. Basketball Reference has the shot charts and shooting breakdown for each player:

Al Jefferson 2012-13 Shooting Splits | Basketball-Reference.com
Tiago Splitter 2012-13 Shooting Splits | Basketball-Reference.com

The first thing that stands out is that Splitter's offense is limited almost entirely to plays at the basket while Jefferson can operate all the way out to 20 feet. Also, when you isolate only plays at the rim, Jefferson is actually slightly better (.727 - .708) than Splitter; although, I think this is still within the margin of error. All around, I think it is clear that Jefferson is a far better offensive option than Splitter.

As for defense, I just think it is hard to find stats that can tell a complete story. When I look at them, I just try to see if there are any glaring differences and when it comes to Splitter and Jefferson, I just don't see any. Both seem to block shots at a slightly disappointing rate. Jefferson appears to be a slightly better rebounder than Splitter, but it something that just jumps out at me.

If the Spurs have the option to bring Jefferson on, I think they should do it and in the off-season, they should go ahead and re-sign him for around the $15M he makes right now.

[Uwe Blab]

Let's stop this nonsense. Stats or not, just watch a Utah game and you'll see that Jefferson is much better. Heck, he's burned the Spurs several times.

[Jose_TheGenius]

Originally Posted by b1gdon

If the Spurs have the option to bring Jefferson on, I think they should do it and in the off-season, they should go ahead and re-sign him for around the $15M he makes right now.

that's the good part. he's not going to be re-signed. the market with the new CBA and player salaries is going to change that. Lebron/Wade/Bosh are all making $18 million, GM's are going to not want to pay Jefferson anything close to that.

at the most, he'll probably want $12 million which is more than fair although i think he can be signed for $10 mill at the lowest.

[MRJONESIII]

Originally Posted by Uwe Blab

Let's stop this nonsense. Stats or not, just watch a Utah game and you'll see that Jefferson is much better. Heck, he's burned the Spurs several times.

Thank you my man! Jefferson has been and always will be better than Tiago. The contact year baller usually never earns his money the following year. Bottom line.... Which guy would you prefer to pay 10-12 million? Also I don't think Tiago helps Duncan get his 5th title in the short allotted time he has left. Maybe 5 years ago and if Splitter was playing at this level. I like T-Split but but Big Al can be the difference against the big boys!

[TodTango]

Al Jefferson= Mike Suckmywokandi version 2.
Why would we need a slow backdown type player In the post?
The playbook is much more than 4down. Jeffersons game is all empty stats because his stats haven't ever uplifted his team's play...ever.
Think about that.
Because he has been a lone low post threat, its turned him into a veritable Black hole.

[goodtexan]

Originally Posted by Jose_TheGenius

who's easily one of the best centers in the West.

Wow, then why should the Spurs trade him?

[rooster]

Call Him AL but don't call him a spur just yet, unless the spurs are Not going to re-sign Manu this trade will never happen.

[Jose_TheGenius]

Originally Posted by TodTango

Al Jefferson= Mike Suckmywokandi version 2.
Why would we need a slow backdown type player In the post?
The playbook is much more than 4down. Jeffersons game is all empty stats because his stats haven't ever uplifted his team's play...ever.
Think about that.
Because he has been a lone low post threat, its turned him into a veritable Black hole.

because this current scheme relies solely on ball movement. if we meet OKC and we can't move the ball, we'll need someone to back down in the post. Duncan can't do that anymore, who's the other option? it certainly isn't Splitter.

we've never won a championship aside from a back down scheme being available. when the game would go too fast, TD would back down. when we can't make our shots, TD would back down. he can't do that anymore and Tiago sure as hell can't.

Originally Posted by goodtexan

Wow, then why should the Spurs trade him?

for the reasons that were listed. the West center depth is weak overall and Splitter needs teammates to have him play well. he'll get overpaid by a team in the offseason.

Splitter is having a career year with a good team but his overall numbers aren't as good as Jefferson's. the fact Jefferson is a more complete player aside from stats should be suffice. dude can create on his own, Splitter can't.

[SPUROFTHAMOMENT]

I love the Spurs and all... love how Tiago's been playing; but if Al Jefferson is available for Tiago and we can afford it somehow; I would love to do it!! Tiago is no where near the player Al Jefferson is... I can't believe we're even having to question who's the better player! Al Jefferson would be hands down by far the best big man Timmy has played with since D-Rob!!!...okay, that's not saying a lot...but it's true! LOL!

[TodTango]

Originally Posted by Jose_TheGenius

because this current scheme relies solely on ball movement. if we meet OKC and we can't move the ball, we'll need someone to back down in the post. Duncan can't do that anymore, who's the other option? it certainly isn't Splitter.

we've never won a championship aside from a back down scheme being available. when the game would go too fast, TD would back down. when we can't make our shots, TD would back down. he can't do that anymore and Tiago sure as hell can't.

Your argument in this solely focused on offense. I get that the O slows a bit in the the playoffs, but the Spurs didn't have an issue with that at all in the playoffs last year. It was on the D side that the Spurs failed. Again, as its been pointed out, Jefferson is a liability on D. His slowness of foot will pose an issue when OKC goes with Durant and Ibaka at posts. How do you account for that? Any advantage gained on O gets negated on the D. Even Utah's slower paced gameplay shows Jefferson's D inadequacies. If you really thought about it, having Jefferson here takes the team out of balance. I agree that every role player has to play his role well to get that 5th ring. That's this team's identity. You have to be who you are and I think Al would be a step back. Whether he comes or not, I will roll Spurs.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Originally Posted by Jose_TheGenius

you don't think Milwaukee, Indiana, or Atlanta, all who could use a Splitter type player and who's easily one of the best centers in the West, will offer him around $10 mill offer sheet? he'd have to take $3-4 mill less in San Antonio and i doubt he loves SA that much.

i would be shocked if the Spurs haven't offered him some kind of extension so far this year since just about every organization does that. that's mostly on Splitter's side than the Spurs.

I look for Splitter to get signed by the Spurs for around $8 million per year. Something like a 5 year $40 million deal. No way the Spurs offer him $6 million as you indicate.

[Jose_TheGenius]

Originally Posted by buttsR4rebounding

I look for Splitter to get signed by the Spurs for around $8 million per year. Something like a 5 year $40 million deal. No way the Spurs offer him $6 million as you indicate.

he's on a rookie contract. you don't think there's going to be a team that'll pay him more than he deserves and he'll bite?

there's no coincidence he's playing well on a contract year. we still have to see how he plays in the playoffs (if he's still here) to see his true worth, especially if a team slows down Parker and he has no one to create for him.

[dark21horse]

Since Jefferson is one of the better low post scorers in the league, he will probably go to the Lakers, or the Mavs, or the Nets. I would say the Heat, but don't they have everybody already?

[JuanCaca]

im all in for a trade of blair and manu for al jefferson...

[td4mvp2k]

Originally Posted by JuanCaca

im all in for a trade of blair and manu for al jefferson...

Ya and you can trade TD and RC 4 him 2...

[WILLTHETHRILL]

Bottom line Big Al is better then Tiago. You got a guy who was a 20 and 10guy and might still be one if were not the sea of big men Utah has. Look at the stats people. I don't believe in the per 48 crap stats though. I think most cases the guy who gets 20 minutes per will a lot of times have better per 48 stats then a starter. I'm no a Splitter hater. I've defended him on here plenty of times. Only thing is some team will offer him a parade of money. The Spurs did not create cap space to blow it all on Tiago and Manu to be re-signed. To include SJax. The Spurs will not pay Splitter crazy money. He will be lost either way in my view.

[TodTango]

Bottom line for the role Al will have on this team, he won't sniff 20 and 10.

Again, there is a balance that needs to be maintained. Why is it that you guys do not see that. So, let's say the trade happens, does that mean that Al gets more shots than Tim or Tony or Manu? How is that possible? On this team, especially at this late in the season, he will be relegated to be a role player as well and again, any effectiveness that he had as a #1 or #1A option, he will not get in San Antonio except in limited minutes. Why would Pop wreck his entire concept around just 1 player when he has the team playing like a juggernaut without that guy?

BALANCE peeps. Look at the amount of shots the Spurs average per game and you tell us where Al's shots are going to come from?

If he is here to take the same amount of shots as Splitter, then why should the Spurs pay more for the same production? Actually it's less because the per minute, Tiago has a better effectiveness rate.


Just remember when Suckmywokandi had many here all hot and bothered on his empty stats as a Clipper. How did he turn out? Or is it FLAME OUT?

[Jose_TheGenius]

Originally Posted by TodTango

Bottom line for the role Al will have on this team, he won't sniff 20 and 10.

Again, there is a balance that needs to be maintained. Why is it that you guys do not see that. So, let's say the trade happens, does that mean that Al gets more shots than Tim or Tony or Manu? How is that possible? On this team, especially at this late in the season, he will be relegated to be a role player as well and again, any effectiveness that he had as a #1 or #1A option, he will not get in San Antonio except in limited minutes. Why would Pop wreck his entire concept around just 1 player when he has the team playing like a juggernaut without that guy?

BALANCE peeps. Look at the amount of shots the Spurs average per game and you tell us where Al's shots are going to come from?

If he is here to take the same amount of shots as Splitter, then why should the Spurs pay more for the same production? Actually it's less because the per minute, Tiago has a better effectiveness rate.


Just remember when Suckmywokandi had many here all hot and bothered on his empty stats as a Clipper. How did he turn out? Or is it FLAME OUT?

we're not (at least i'm not saying) Jefferson will or can average that with the Spurs, but his game compared to Tiago's serves the Spurs down the stretch.

if Jefferson is known to average a double double, that would be enough to distract the defense and change the schemes.

it is about balance, that's why the Spurs need a down low presence to compliment the running game when the opponents slow down the Spurs' O or dare the team to shoot.

[TodTango]

JTG- What you are actually saying is that the down low presence is an antidote to a sluggish offense. But that's a crutch and here is why. To beat the Spurs, you have to be able to slow down TP. Having Al Jefferson in the block means that you have a black hole where players are going to stand around. This ain't Tim Duncan in the post averaging 3 assists per. This is AL JEFFERSON, more like 2 assists per but doesn't know the offense well enough to be able to make smart reads. Why disrupt everything that Pop is doing to fit 1 4th option player? Think about that...the guy is the 4th option on the team at best. Tiago's points and production have come within the flow of the offense. To bring in Jefferson means he first has to learn the offense, then get the flow, and then be able to make the necessary reads to fully utilize the 4 down low block post up. So again, why change everything that you do and have been doing so well all season, to accomodate 1 guy who at best, is your 4th option when the Big 3 is healthy?

[JuanCaca]

because in PO's, defenses like the one used by okc happens.
you disrupt spurs passing lanes and put long defender on parker... and spurs are done... sad but true.. i love my spurs, but they need that post menance to to seriusly contend ..

[WILLTHETHRILL]

Originally Posted by TodTango

Bottom line for the role Al will have on this team, he won't sniff 20 and 10.

Again, there is a balance that needs to be maintained. Why is it that you guys do not see that. So, let's say the trade happens, does that mean that Al gets more shots than Tim or Tony or Manu? How is that possible? On this team, especially at this late in the season, he will be relegated to be a role player as well and again, any effectiveness that he had as a #1 or #1A option, he will not get in San Antonio except in limited minutes. Why would Pop wreck his entire concept around just 1 player when he has the team playing like a juggernaut without that guy?

BALANCE peeps. Look at the amount of shots the Spurs average per game and you tell us where Al's shots are going to come from?

If he is here to take the same amount of shots as Splitter, then why should the Spurs pay more for the same production? Actually it's less because the per minute, Tiago has a better effectiveness rate.


Just remember when Suckmywokandi had many here all hot and bothered on his empty stats as a Clipper. How did he turn out? Or is it FLAME OUT?

Here is the real bottom line. I do not think the Spurs can win a title going status quo on their current roster. Never said Big Al would get 20 and 10 here every night FYI. Splitter is likely to bolt anyway and if the Spurs had their 2007 crew with Splitter they could take the championship but they don't. It's 2013 with an older group with lots of miles. They need a proven performer. Like I said per 48 or per minute stats are geared in favor of the lower minute players. As far as wrecking things, Why do Pop and RC talk to Utah about Jefferson in the first place?

[JuanCaca]

can you imagine this spurs team,
substracting joseph or blair + manu(2013 version, not the gold medal version that we always remeber and love) and adding al jefferson??

once you get big al, suddenly you have tim duncan, al jefferon, tiago splitter, and boris diaw rotating in the 4 and 5 with bayness warming the bench... a lot of big bodys that actually can lessen the wear and tear on timmys body... then you can think about trading blair and bonner for any SF aor long SG; or injury insurance vets, project young player, cash or draft picks...

and is not that this gonna become "al jefferson team" and run offense like if it was 2005 timmy in the paint... but dang! had a player in his prime able to create in the post if needed... tim NEEDS help when pace slow down in PO... i feel bad just imagining 37YO timmy trying to bang in the paint against deandre jordan griffin odom, etc, ibaka perkins etc... gasol randolph ...and so on

only that way, we can say to opponents "pick your poison"...

[Jose_TheGenius]

Originally Posted by TodTango

JTG- What you are actually saying is that the down low presence is an antidote to a sluggish offense. But that's a crutch and here is why. To beat the Spurs, you have to be able to slow down TP. Having Al Jefferson in the block means that you have a black hole where players are going to stand around. This ain't Tim Duncan in the post averaging 3 assists per. This is AL JEFFERSON, more like 2 assists per but doesn't know the offense well enough to be able to make smart reads. Why disrupt everything that Pop is doing to fit 1 4th option player? Think about that...the guy is the 4th option on the team at best. Tiago's points and production have come within the flow of the offense. To bring in Jefferson means he first has to learn the offense, then get the flow, and then be able to make the necessary reads to fully utilize the 4 down low block post up. So again, why change everything that you do and have been doing so well all season, to accomodate 1 guy who at best, is your 4th option when the Big 3 is healthy?

you said it was about balance right? that's balance. Al Jefferson wouldn't get the rock every possession but it would force the defense to switch schemes about every other play (i.e. old Spurs offense going with a Pick and Roll then a 4 Down then rotating that with Manu/TP)

the only time there's a "black hole" in basketball terms is a guy who gets the ball and jacks up a shot when he touches the rock. Al Jefferson isn't that, not even close. if he's a black hole on offense, then you're saying Duncan was a black hole on offense the whole time before we ran?

Al Jefferson plays a vintage TD post up game and that's what we need to compliment our running scheme. JuanCaca's answer below is the reason why it's needed or else hope we don't see OKC or Miami in the playoffs.

Originally Posted by JuanCaca

because in PO's, defenses like the one used by okc happens.
you disrupt spurs passing lanes and put long defender on parker... and spurs are done... sad but true.. i love my spurs, but they need that post menance to to seriusly contend ..

OKC's Thabo or MIA's Lebron on TP = we're screwed if we don't have anyone else who can contribute. how would you counter that? a down low presence and TD can't do that anymore.

[TodTango]

Originally Posted by Jose_TheGenius

you said it was about balance right? that's balance. Al Jefferson wouldn't get the rock every possession but it would force the defense to switch schemes about every other play (i.e. old Spurs offense going with a Pick and Roll then a 4 Down then rotating that with Manu/TP)

Again, when would this be implemented. There was no issue with offense against OKC, the issue was D. So we fix the D by fixing the not broke O? The team relied too much on the 3 last season but they lost because Harden could not be stopped despite Westbrook's issues.

the only time there's a "black hole" in basketball terms is a guy who gets the ball and jacks up a shot when he touches the rock. Al Jefferson isn't that, not even close. if he's a black hole on offense, then you're saying Duncan was a black hole on offense the whole time before we ran?

Quite the opposite. Unlike Jefferson, the offense flowed through the post and Tim knows every play and every option and the team had built the kind of cohesion that builds over time. Every player the Spurs bring in over the trade deadline is given a condensed version of the playbook when they arrive. In essence, with good avanced scouting, that makes defending that player EASIER. Unlike Tim who knows the whole playbook. Pop's playbook is the league's most extensive and just going to the post isn't the whole story.

Al Jefferson plays a vintage TD post up game and that's what we need to compliment our running scheme. JuanCaca's answer below is the reason why it's needed or else hope we don't see OKC or Miami in the playoffs.

OKC's Thabo or MIA's Lebron on TP = we're screwed if we don't have anyone else who can contribute. how would you counter that? a down low presence and TD can't do that anymore.

Lebron cannot cover Parker. He will in certain situations but he won't for entire games the same way he wouldn't for Chris Paul. You have to expend so much energy guarding the other team's best player plus run the offense and attack the glass. MIA needs that from LBJ.
OKC has the luxury of Thabo not having any of those responsibilities.But with Harden gone, I'm in the camp that Westbrook's me first mentality is going to give the Spurs a better chance plus an improved Leonard & Splitter. I don't advocate fixing the defense by getting a player whose lone skill set upsets the balance and chemistry of an already strong team. If Duncan's knee wasn't saved by the VI Flaming Eagle Knee Brace, then bringing Al would be a feasible scenario. Lucky that Tim will be back but assuming that Tim retires earlier than we thought, I just don't see Jefferson as the post replacement of the future deserving of Superstar dollars.
I am encouraged by the improvement in KL's offensive skills and feel that Pop will use that as a change of pace attack sequence. He's the near future and with TP still gives us a formidable line up. No one will stay status quo but the Spurs way with fiscal responsibility and the building of corporate knowlege is one I have no issue at all, with backing.

Feel free to disagree. It's an interesting discussion and I await the feedback.

[TodTango]

Still waiting for feedback-

Curious about what Al Jefferson "wanters" think about the points I've made.

Thanks-

TodTango