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Old 08-26-10, 05:48 AM
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Bender Bending Rodriguez, Esq.
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 31,073
Will Carroll: Be wary of injured wide receivers

I did my first fantasy football draft last week and I picked a duesy. It's the FSWA "Experts League" and this isn't an easy one. It goes 20 deep on a 12-team league and I'm playing with some hardcore fantasy people. So a couple mocks, a lot of research, a copy of the SI Draft Kit and Football Outsiders Almanac ready on the iPad and I'm ready, right? I was ready, but not for seeing Andre Johnson come off the board at No. 2 overall. A couple years ago, I started arguing against the orthodoxy of RB/RB in the first two rounds, based on the emerging principles of dynamic value based drafting. At the time, I argued that if you didn't get an upper tier RB at the end of round 1, it was reasonable to look at the solid upper-tier QBs like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. The strategy worked and continues to work, but the changes in how running backs are used in the NFL continues to shrink the top-tier and makes the QB1 join the WR1 in the first round. Randy Moss, after his monster season in 2007, showed up very high in 2008 ... and that's the risk. WRs aren't consistent or predictable. Moss wasn't "worse" in 2008, he just didn't have Brady throwing to him. As more and more people use dynamic strategies and as NFL teams continue to spread carries out, WR1s and WR2s are going to come up draft boards. Let's take a look at the injury risks and help you avoid some issues:

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