Regardless of Manu, I don't think Neal is worth much more than the qualifying offer. He's a straight-up shooter who can be streaky good and streaky bad. There are lots of guys like that. If he could drive to the rim and finish, I'd think about paying more. But I haven't seen that in his game yet.
I like the numbers you're suggesting for Tiago, but I have to think that someone's gonna throw funny money at him. Maybe a mil more a year than you're proposing would get it done. It all depends on how committed Tiago is to SA.
The Manu number is about right, and I suspect Manu would be open to it. He's been the highest paid Spur this year and has to know that Time is catching up to him (e.g., he's recently mentioned retirement). If he's gone after the Finals, a #20 jersey gets hoisted to the rafters sooner rather than later...
Moving forward, I've been impressed by Joseph, and I have wild hopes that Nando can finally get it and provide a bit of the crazy, effective showmanship we used to see regularly from Manu. Is Patty Mills ever gonna get a chance to do more than wave a towel? I like what I see from him every time he manages to get court time.