Originally Posted by Jose_TheGenius
Jefferson's "true shooting %" should be taken into account on the offense. how many times does Tiago create his own shot compared to Parker or another player creating for him? the pick and roll (the majority of the offense for him) is dependent on Parker creating for him. Al Jefferson, on the other hand, has to back down guys when posting up without having others create for him and facing double teams.
again, the shots depend on Parker. how many shots does Splitter actually get on his own? very minimal, probably counting them on one finger. how many times does Big Al get the ball in the paint?
offensive rebounds are a decent stat when the team doesn't make shots. when a team makes the majority of the shots, you don't get a lot of offensive rebounds. not attributing that to the Jazz nor the Spurs in this, but the offensive rebounding category is an inflated statistic. it depends on position of the players and if the coach wants them to get back the majority of the time.
you can do the 48 comparison, but the Jazz don't have much depth in the C position like the Spurs. you can play Favors or Milsap there, but Jefferson is the better option. the Spurs have much more depth where we have Diaw to get a lot of minutes if needed along with Jackson playing the 4. also, Splitter didn't start the season as the center like Jefferson did. the problem also with doing a 48 comparison is that you're basically doubling his production by "guessing" he'd do that. if someone had 15ppg in 24 minutes, he may average more if given an abundant of minutes?
stats are nice, but you have to take into consideration the personnel of the player. how many times could stats have been used (i.e. Stephen Jackson, Speedy Claxton, Richard Jefferson, Roger Mason Jr) and they didn't end up working out on a different team or coming here? Jefferson is, by far, a better center than Splitter and he's shown that for the majority of his career by his own skills and talent. when Tiago can consistently back down players and rebound as much as Jefferson while earning more minutes, then maybe keeping Tiago would be a better option.
especially when this is the only year Tiago has performed (when he's about to get a big paycheck) compared to Jefferson doing this his whole career.
I have to agree with Jose here. Advanced statistics in basketball have to be taken with a grain of salt. If you drill down into Jefferson's and Splitter's shooting stats, you will see that Jefferson is still a much better scorer than Splitter even though he has a lower eFG. Basketball Reference has the shot charts and shooting breakdown for each player: Al Jefferson 2012-13 Shooting Splits | Basketball-Reference.com Tiago Splitter 2012-13 Shooting Splits | Basketball-Reference.com
The first thing that stands out is that Splitter's offense is limited almost entirely to plays at the basket while Jefferson can operate all the way out to 20 feet. Also, when you isolate only plays at the rim, Jefferson is actually slightly better (.727 - .708) than Splitter; although, I think this is still within the margin of error. All around, I think it is clear that Jefferson is a far better offensive option than Splitter.
As for defense, I just think it is hard to find stats that can tell a complete story. When I look at them, I just try to see if there are any glaring differences and when it comes to Splitter and Jefferson, I just don't see any. Both seem to block shots at a slightly disappointing rate. Jefferson appears to be a slightly better rebounder than Splitter, but it something that just jumps out at me.
If the Spurs have the option to bring Jefferson on, I think they should do it and in the off-season, they should go ahead and re-sign him for around the $15M he makes right now.