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Old 02-09-13, 05:21 PM
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Jose_TheGenius Jose_TheGenius is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bills0 View Post
I think that Al Jefferson is one of those players whose reputation is better that his actual play.



This doesn’t tell the full story. Al Jefferson has a True Shooting percentage (TS%) that is below average for a center. (True shooting percent takes account of 3 pointers and free throws as well as two pointers). An average center has a TS% of 54.1% but Jefferson's is 51.5%.

On the other hand Splitter's TS% is a tremendous 64.7%. The only player in the league playing with a better percentage is Tyson Chandler with 69.2%. There are also about 7 other players clustered about the 64% mark but, still, Splitter is in elite company. Last year he had an even better TS% of 64.9% .



I don't think that Jefferson's shooting woes are due to his having to create on his own. He played for several seasons with Deron Williams who was a pretty good passer himself, and Jefferson's percentage was still below average, albeit a little better than now.

In fact Jefferson has has had a below average TS% ever since his sophomore season, and he has never been better than 55.4%. Splitter, on the other hand, has been above average for his entire career in the NBA, and, for the last two seasons, much better than average.

Because of this Splitter gets 1.59 points per shot whereas Jefferson gets 1.11 points per shot.



You should not use rebounds per game for comparing two players because that depends on how much time they are on the floor. For apples-to–apples comparison you should use something like rebounds per 48 min. On this measure Al is still ahead by 2 rebounds per 48 min, but that is not such a big difference. An interesting point is that Splitter is actually a slightly better offensive rebounder than Jefferson (3.3 vs 3.0 per 48).




I think you have this backward. Splitter is performing now, but if the Spurs get Jefferson he probably will not be a major factor for the title run this year. The main thing holding Jefferson back from being the player most people think he is, is his poor shooting. He has been an inefficient shooter his entire career and at 28 years old he is what he is.

There is some reason to think that he is just taking too many bad shots and it is conceivable that Pop would be able to break him of that habit. However, you don't change the way a player has played for his entire career in just a few months. If the Spurs take on Jefferson, it will be as a longer term project. In any event there is no immediate advantage to trading Splitter for him.
Jefferson's "true shooting %" should be taken into account on the offense. how many times does Tiago create his own shot compared to Parker or another player creating for him? the pick and roll (the majority of the offense for him) is dependent on Parker creating for him. Al Jefferson, on the other hand, has to back down guys when posting up without having others create for him and facing double teams.

again, the shots depend on Parker. how many shots does Splitter actually get on his own? very minimal, probably counting them on one finger. how many times does Big Al get the ball in the paint?

offensive rebounds are a decent stat when the team doesn't make shots. when a team makes the majority of the shots, you don't get a lot of offensive rebounds. not attributing that to the Jazz nor the Spurs in this, but the offensive rebounding category is an inflated statistic. it depends on position of the players and if the coach wants them to get back the majority of the time.

you can do the 48 comparison, but the Jazz don't have much depth in the C position like the Spurs. you can play Favors or Milsap there, but Jefferson is the better option. the Spurs have much more depth where we have Diaw to get a lot of minutes if needed along with Jackson playing the 4. also, Splitter didn't start the season as the center like Jefferson did. the problem also with doing a 48 comparison is that you're basically doubling his production by "guessing" he'd do that. if someone had 15ppg in 24 minutes, he may average more if given an abundant of minutes?

stats are nice, but you have to take into consideration the personnel of the player. how many times could stats have been used (i.e. Stephen Jackson, Speedy Claxton, Richard Jefferson, Roger Mason Jr) and they didn't end up working out on a different team or coming here? Jefferson is, by far, a better center than Splitter and he's shown that for the majority of his career by his own skills and talent. when Tiago can consistently back down players and rebound as much as Jefferson while earning more minutes, then maybe keeping Tiago would be a better option.

especially when this is the only year Tiago has performed (when he's about to get a big paycheck) compared to Jefferson doing this his whole career.
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