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Old 02-09-13, 03:53 PM
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bills0 bills0 is offline
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I think that Al Jefferson is one of those players whose reputation is better that his actual play.

Splitter is shooting a higher FG%, but that's attributed to Parker's passing while Jefferson has to create on his own.
This doesn’t tell the full story. Al Jefferson has a True Shooting percentage (TS%) that is below average for a center. (True shooting percent takes account of 3 pointers and free throws as well as two pointers). An average center has a TS% of 54.1% but Jefferson's is 51.5%.

On the other hand Splitter's TS% is a tremendous 64.7%. The only player in the league playing with a better percentage is Tyson Chandler with 69.2%. There are also about 7 other players clustered about the 64% mark but, still, Splitter is in elite company. Last year he had an even better TS% of 64.9% .

Splitter is shooting a higher FG%, but that's attributed to Parker's passing while Jefferson has to create on his own.
I don't think that Jefferson's shooting woes are due to his having to create on his own. He played for several seasons with Deron Williams who was a pretty good passer himself, and Jefferson's percentage was still below average, albeit a little better than now.

In fact Jefferson has has had a below average TS% ever since his sophomore season, and he has never been better than 55.4%. Splitter, on the other hand, has been above average for his entire career in the NBA, and, for the last two seasons, much better than average.

Because of this Splitter gets 1.59 points per shot whereas Jefferson gets 1.11 points per shot.

Jefferson is just out rebounding Splitter by 5rpg is all.
You should not use rebounds per game for comparing two players because that depends on how much time they are on the floor. For apples-to–apples comparison you should use something like rebounds per 48 min. On this measure Al is still ahead by 2 rebounds per 48 min, but that is not such a big difference. An interesting point is that Splitter is actually a slightly better offensive rebounder than Jefferson (3.3 vs 3.0 per 48).

Jefferson is more expensive, but when are we looking at the long term picture when TD/Manu are in for the short term? do we wanna build a good team that's not promised a title in the future or win a title now?
I think you have this backward. Splitter is performing now, but if the Spurs get Jefferson he probably will not be a major factor for the title run this year. The main thing holding Jefferson back from being the player most people think he is, is his poor shooting. He has been an inefficient shooter his entire career and at 28 years old he is what he is.

There is some reason to think that he is just taking too many bad shots and it is conceivable that Pop would be able to break him of that habit. However, you don't change the way a player has played for his entire career in just a few months. If the Spurs take on Jefferson, it will be as a longer term project. In any event there is no immediate advantage to trading Splitter for him.

Last edited by bills0; 02-09-13 at 03:55 PM. Reason: spelling
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