Humor me, Paul Popovich
Bruce Jenkins' Three Dot Blog : The Essential Touch of Humor The Essential Touch of Humor
By Bruce Jenkins
Last year at this time, speculation concerning potential NBA champions was complete guesswork. Right now, putting aside the injury factor, only four teams -- the Lakers, San Antonio, Boston and Cleveland -- have a chance to win it.
Things were going beautifully in Orlando until point guard Jameer Nelson was apparently lost for the season with a dislocated shoulder. He was vital to the flow of the Magic's offense, aside from being a clutch outside shooter and team leader. There was early-season talk about Detroit, but the Chauncey Billups-Allen Iverson trade destroyed the Pistons' chemistry. Most of the talk in Detroit now concerns unloading the expiring contracts of Iverson and Rasheed Wallace and preparing for the free-agent windfall in the summer of 2010.
As for the West, we'd handicap it this way:
1. Lakers. We saw their remarkable capability when they went 6-0 on their recent road trip, finishing off season sweeps of the Celtics and Cavaliers while getting a 61-point game from Kobe in Madison Square Garden. Their only potential problem is the return of Andrew Bynum. In opting against surgery to repair his injured knee, he has to be diligent in his rehabilitation and get back in plenty of time for the playoffs. If he slips up, or has a setback, he'll either (1) return too late or (2) leave doubt as to exactly how he fits into the Pau Gasol-Lamar Odom frontcourt.
Another key factor is fatigue. Without Bynum in the second half of the season last year, Bryant played a ton of minutes and eventually wore down in the Finals against Boston. He was getting plenty of rest this year until Bynum went down. It's true that the worst of the Lakers' schedule is over, but if they really want that home-court advantage against everybody, Kobe faces a lot of demanding fourth quarters.
2. San Antonio. Loved it when coach
Paul Popovich
rested Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Michael Finley after the Spurs made a late-night trip from Oakland to Denver in a back-to-back. Not one of them played a minute against the Nuggets, causing a bit of outrage within the league. Popovich, sublimely marching to his own drummer, couldn't have cared less. The decision gave each of those players a five-day break, especially relevant for Duncan and Parker since they won't have an All-Star break (as members of the West team). Great move. Typical San Antonio smarts. Nobody wants to face these guys in the playoffs, and remember, Ginobili is likely to be at full strength this time around.
3. Utah. Deron Williams has been destroying people lately. He's finally healthy, routinely going for 30 points and running the floor as well as anyone in the league. I'd never place the Jazz this high if they couldn't get a healthy Williams, Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko on the floor at once. It hasn't happened yet, but there's hope for the playoffs, and Boozer's absence has allowed for the noticeable blossiming of Paul Millsap.
4. New Orleans. Another underachieving team, but you can't discount the Paul-David West combination when things start to get serious. Paul takes the court in a manner suggesting he owns the league, and while that isn't quite true, he's got a way about him. Don't forget the James Posey factor, either, when the playoffs start.
5. Denver. The Nuggets still have a huge knucklehead factor (Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith), but Billups' arrival made a tremendous difference and Carmelo Anthony has a lot to prove after being left off the All-Star team. They'll be very difficlt to beat at home.
6. Dallas. Things picked up when coach Rick Carlisle left the play-calling up to Jason Kidd, but these guys never seem to get everyone healthy at once. With Kidd, Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry and Josh Howard in flow, they could at least win a first-round series -- but they'd better finish higher than sixth.
7. Houston. No chance to do anything of consequence. Tracy McGrady is now feuding with everyone -- fans, executives, media -- over the state of his knee. Nobody can believe he's that injured, since he takes the floor most of the time, but he says he's in genuine pain, all the while turning people off with that hangdog look on his face. Yao Ming is a nice player and everything, but has a streak of reticence that makes him vulnerable to every serious center-power forward in the league. Ron Artest routinely shackles the offensive flow when he gets the ball and looks for his own shot. Plus, these guys are sniping at each other. Over. Done.
8. Portland. Still waiting for center Greg Oden to develop. Some feel that won't ever happen, not in a major way, but without Oden as a genuine force, they're still a bit too young. If they make a dent in the playoffs, it will be because Brandon Roy reminds so many people of Oscar Robertson and Walt Frazier, a floor leader with measured pace and unlimited capability. There isn't a player in the league with more class. Love to watch Rudy Fernandez, too, and all of the Blazers when they're rolling. It just seems that they're a year or two away.
9. Phoenix. The odd team out. Replacing Porter with Alvin Gentry doesn't figure to make much difference at this stage of the season, especially if the Suns unload Stoudemire in a cost-cutting deal and get nothing close to equal value in return. The Suns' grim decline will have Steve Nash looking toward New York or Toronto (his two favorite places) when he's free in 2010.